Great Power Asymmetry and the Russia-China Strategic Partnership тема диссертации и автореферата по ВАК РФ 00.00.00, кандидат наук Вонг Ка Хо

• Вонг Ка Хо
• кандидат наук
• 2026

Оглавление диссертации кандидат наук Вонг Ка Хо

TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES

INTRODUCTION

1. CONCEPTUAL AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORKS

1.1. Redefining Power in International Relations

1.2. Reconceptualizing Asymmetry in International Relations

1.3. Theoretical Explanations of Asymmetrical Interstate Relations

1.4. Chapter Summary

2. THE EVOLUTION OF POWER ASYMMETRY BETWEEN RUSSIA AND CHINA

2.1. Russia and China After the Collapse of the USSR (1992-2000)

2.2. Russia and China After the September 11 Attacks (2001 -2007)

2.3. Russia and China During and After the Global Financial Crisis (20082013)

2.4. Russia and China After the Crimean Crisis (2014-2021)

2.5. Russia and China During the Russian Special Military Operation in Ukraine (2022-2024)

2.6. Chapter Summary

3. THE DEVELOPMENT OF ASYMMETRICAL RUSSIA-CHINA RELATIONS

3.1. From Constructive to Strategic Partnership in the Post-Soviet Period (19922000)

3.2.A Treaty-Based Strategic Partnership in the Post-September 11 Period (20012007)

3.3. A Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in the Post-Global Financial Crisis Period (2008-2013)

3.4. A New-Era Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in the Post-Crimea Period (2014-2021)

3.5. A Limitless Strategic Partnership during the Russian Special Military Operation in Ukraine (2022-2024)

3.6. Chapter Summary

CONCLUSION

BIBLIOGRAPHY

APPENDICES

Appendix 1. The Balance of Capability between Russia and China

Appendix 2. The Balance of Dependence between Russia and China

LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES

Figures

Figure 1. Contrasting Perspectives on Asymmetry between Russia and China

Figure 2. Contrasting Perspectives on the Development of Asymmetrical Russia-China

Relations

Figure 3. Framework for Measuring Asymmetry in International Relations

Figure 4. Indicators for Measuring Asymmetry in International Relations

Figure 5. Power Asymmetry between Russia and China (1992-2000)

Figure 6. Power Asymmetry between Russia and China (2001-2007)

Figure 7. Power Asymmetry between Russia and China (2008-2013)

Figure 8. Power Asymmetry between Russia and China (2014-2021)

Figure 9. Power Asymmetry between Russia and China (2022-2024)

Figure 10. Power Asymmetry between Russia and China (1992-2024)

Tables

Table 1. Redefinition of Asymmetry in International Relations

Table 2. Implications of Asymmetry for Russia-China Relations

Введение диссертации (часть автореферата) на тему «Great Power Asymmetry and the Russia-China Strategic Partnership»

INTRODUCTION

Research Relevance

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has established and subsequently consolidated a strategic partnership with China, as evidenced by numerous official documents.1 In September 1994, Chinese President Jiang Zemin visited Russia, and together with Russian President Boris Yeltsin, signed the "Joint Russian-Chinese Declaration," affirming their commitment to developing constructive partnership relations.2 Two years later, Yeltsin paid a state visit to China, where he and Jiang Zemin signed a joint statement declaring their determination to develop a strategic cooperative partnership.3 Ultimately, the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation between Russia and China was signed in July 2001.4 To mark the tenth anniversary of the signing of this treaty, China and Russia announced the establishment of a comprehensive strategic partnership and cooperation.5 In June 2019, while celebrating the seventieth anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations, Russia and China declared that their comprehensive strategic partnership had entered a new era.6 Less than a month before Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the

1 Voskressenski A.D. Russia, China and Eurasia: A Bibliographic Profile of Selected International Literature. - Commack, NY: Nova Science Publishers, 1998. - 128 p.

2 Sovmestnaya rossiysko-kitayskaya deklaratsiya 1994 goda // President of Russia. - September 3, 1994. - Text: electronic. - URL: https://ir.rudn.ru/books/b2/02.pdf (retrieved on 20.03.2024).

3 Sovmestnaya rossiysko-kitayskaya deklaratsiya 25 aprelya 1996 goda // President of Russia. - April 25, 1996. - Text: electronic. - URL: https://mid.ru/upload/medialibrary/662/1996.pdf (retrieved on 20.03.2024).

4 Dogovor o dobrososedstve, druzhbe i sotrudnichestve mezhdu Rossiyskoy Federatsiyey i Kitayskoy Narodnoy Respublikoy // President of Russia. - July 16, 2001. - Text: electronic. - URL: http://www.kremlin.ru/supplement/3418 (retrieved on 20.03.2024).

5 Sovmestnoye zayavleniye Prezidenta Rossiyskoy Federatsii i Predsedatelya Kitayskoy Narodnoy Respubliki v svyazi s 10-letiyem Dogovora o dobrososedstve, druzhbe i sotrudnichestve mezhdu Rossiyskoy Federatsiey i Kitayskoy Narodnoy Respublikoy // President of Russia. - June 16, 2011. -Text: electronic. - URL: http://kremlin.ru/supplement/966 (retrieved on 20.03.2024).

6 Sovmestnoye zayavleniye Rossiyskoy Federatsii i Kitayskoy Narodnoy Respubliki o razvitii otnosheniy vseob"yemlyushchego partnerstva i strategicheskogo vzaimodeystviya, vstupyayushchikh v novuyu epokhu // President of Russia. - June 5, 2019. - Text: electronic. - URL: http://kremlin.ru/supplement/5413 (retrieved on 20.03.2024).

special military operation in Ukraine, Russia and China proclaimed that their friendship had no limits and that there were no forbidden areas in their bilateral cooperation.7

At the same time, the Russian-Chinese strategic partnership has increasingly been perceived as asymmetrical in favor of Beijing, particularly among Western scholars following the onset of Russia's special military operation. There is broad consensus within Western scholarship that the Russia-China relationship has become gradually more imbalanced, with Russia occupying the position of junior partner due to its growing economic and technological dependence on China.8 Consequently, Russia may need to make unilateral concessions, such as tempering its great-power ambitions, acquiescing to China's vision for Eurasian integration, and potentially facing the revival of territorial issues in the future.9 As a result, the long-term prospects for Russia-China relations are considered less promising due to their increasingly divergent interests and strategic orientations.10 In addition to the Western scholarly community, journalists and analysts have also shown enthusiasm in characterizing Russia as a younger brother, junior partner, or even a vassal state of China.11 Furthermore, world

7 Sovmestnoye zayavleniye Rossiyskoy Federatsii i Kitayskoy Narodnoy Respubliki o mezhdunarodnykh otnosheniyakh, vstupyayushchikh v novuyu epokhu, i global'nom ustoychivom razvitii // President of Russia. - February 4, 2022. - Text: electronic. - URL: http://www.kremlin.ru/supplement/5770 (retrieved on 20.03.2024).

8 Von Essen H. Russia-China economic relations since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine // NKK/SCEEUS Report. - 2023. - № 2. - 5 July. - URL: https://kinacentrum.se/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/russia-china-econ-relations.pdf; Kluge J. Russia-China economic relations: Moscow's road to economic dependence // SWP Research Paper. - 2024. - № 6. DOI 10.18449/2024RP06

9 Rozman G. The Ukraine War in the Context of Russian Thinking about China // Putin's "Turn to the East" in the Xi Jinping Era / ed. by G. Rozman, G. Christoffersen. - London; New York: Routledge, 2023. - P. 233.

10 Lo B. Turning point? Putin, Xi, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine // Lowy Institute Analyses. -2022. May 25. - URL: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/turning-point-putin-xi-russian-invasion-ukraine.

11 Skosyrev, V. Rossiya prevratilas' iz starshego brata Kitaya v mladshego // Nezavisimaya gazeta. -2021. - 7 iyulya. - URL: https://www.ng.ru/world/2021-07-07/6_8192_china.html; Gabuev A. China's new vassal // Foreign Affairs. - 2022. August 9. - URL: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-new-vassal; Lepyokhina, E. «Mladshii brat, no eshche ne vassal». Chto zapadnaia pressa pishet o vstreche Putina i Si Tszin'pina v Moskve // RTVI. - 2023.

leaders such as French President Emmanuel Macron have asserted that Moscow's isolation has rendered it subservient to Beijing—an assessment that the Kremlin has publicly rejected.12 In response to claims of Russia being a junior partner to China, Putin emphasized that Russia-China relations are built on equal basis, with no senior or junior partners, and that both sides act in each other's interests.13

Beyond its relationship with China, the phenomenon of asymmetrical relations remains central to Russian foreign policymaking. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has engaged in an asymmetrical rivalry with the United States, selectively leveraging its remaining advantages to undermine American policy worldwide in exchange for recognition of its sphere of influence and great power status.14 This prompts the intriguing question of why Russia's relationship with China has taken the form of a partnership rather than a rivalry, and why Moscow appears to bandwagon with rather than balance against a more powerful Beijing on the global stage, as offensive realism would predict.15

Similarly, China is increasingly regarded as having achieved asymmetrical parity with the United States, characterized by overall economic output comparable to the America but significant disparities in wealth and technological capability.16 As an emerging superpower, China is inclined to leverage its position to influence weaker states, thereby posing a greater threat to neighboring countries in Asia, including Russia. Nevertheless, given increasing global interconnectedness, some scholars anticipate that

- URL: https://rtvi.com/news/mladshij -brat-no-eshhe-ne-vassal-chto-zapadnaya-pressa-pishet-o-vstreche-putina-i-si-czzinpina-v-moskve/. - Text: electronic).

12 Peskov: Moskva ne soglasna s mneniyem Parizha o vassal'noy zavisimosti Rossii ot Kitaya // TASS.

- 2023. 15 May. - URL: https://tass.ru/politika/17749011

13 Putin: v otnosheniyakh Rossii i Kitaya "net ni starshikh, ni mladshikh" // TASS. - 2024. October 18. - URL: https://tass.ru/politika/22159415

14 Tsygankov A.P. Russia and America: The Asymmetric Rivalry. - Cambridge, UK; Medford, MA: Polity, 2019. - P. 8-12.

15 Mearsheimer J.J. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. Norton Series in World Politics. — New York: Norton, 2001. - P. 400.

16 Womack B. Asymmetric parity: US-China relations in a multinodal world // International Affairs.

- 2016. - Vol. 92, - № 6. - P. 1463-1480. DOI 10.1111/1468-2346.12754

Beijing is unlikely to achieve outright dominance, as smaller states are able to hedge against dependence on China and forge new partnerships.17 Furthermore, since Russia maintains greater power than most of China's neighboring countries, it is pertinent to examine whether Beijing affords Russia preferential treatment and whether Moscow enjoys greater latitude in diversifying its ties with China.

In a broader context, the management of asymmetrical Russia-China relations carries significant regional and global implications. Power asymmetry often generate tensions in great-power relationships, particularly when it is not properly managed.18 A deterioration in Russia-China relations could destabilize Central Asia, which shares borders with both countries and dependent on their cooperation and agreements over recent decades. Similarly, shifts in Russia-China relations have the potential to alter the international balance of power within the strategic triangle that includes the United States. As a pariah in this triangle, Washington could theoretically benefit from a rift between Moscow and Beijing, enabling it to concentrate on containing China' s rise, though such a rupture has not materialized in practice.19 Literature Review

With few exceptions, power asymmetry has generally been treated as a contextual factor rather than a central focus in research on contemporary Russia-China relations.20 The rationale for this is twofold. On one hand, some scholars view the power imbalance between Russia and China as a well-established fact, citing conventional metrics such as gross domestic product (GDP) and military expenditures.

17 Womack B. Recentering Pacific Asia: Regional China and World Order. - Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2023. - P. 166.

18 Womack B. Asymmetry and International Relationships. - Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2016. - P. 6.

19 Dittmer L. China's Asia: Triangular Dynamics since the Cold War. - Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield, 2018. - P. 99.

20 Kaczmarski M. Russia-China Relations in the Post-Crisis International Order. - London: Routledge, 2015. - 188 p.; Berzina-Cerenkova U.A. Perfect Imbalance: China and Russia. - World Scientific (Europe), 2022. - 288 p.

However, experts on China caution against overestimating its power, noting internal challenges and a relatively limited global influence capable of shaping international events and other countries.21 Likewise, experts on Russia warn against underestimating its capabilities, emphasizing that the Kremlin still retains significant resources and demonstrates a willingness to employ them assertively in international politics.22 On the other hand, some researchers consider asymmetry as a potential challenge in Russia-China relations and ultimately devote greater attention to other more urgent issues.

Among scholars, there are both believers and skeptics regarding the presence of asymmetry in Russia-China relations. The perspective that asymmetry characterizes the bilateral relationship is predominant, especially within Western academia, where numerous scholars present evidence highlighting its various forms and dimensions. Conversely, skeptics challenge these claims with substantive counterarguments, although they may at times concede the existence of limited asymmetry.

To begin with, believers of the asymmetry contend that a significant imbalance exists between Russia and China because Beijing surpasses Moscow in most indicators of national capability. This view holds that the aggregate balance of power has shifted in China's favor since the early 2000s, although Russia retains residual advantages in nuclear weapons, military technology, and natural resources.23

21 Shirk S. China: Fragile Superpower. - Oxford; New York: Oxford University Press, 2008. P. 255; Shambaugh D. China Goes Global: The Partial Power. - Oxford; New York: Oxford University Press, 2013. - P. 7-8.

22 Stoner K.E. Russia Resurrected: Its Power and Purpose in a New Global Order. - Oxford; New York: Oxford University Press, 2021. - P. 236.

23 Trenin D. The China Factor: Challenge and Chance for Russia // Rapprochement or Rivalry? Russia-China Relations in a Changing Asia / ed. by S.W. Garnett. - Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2000. - P. 42; Wilson J.L. Strategic Partners: Russian-Chinese Relations in the Post-Soviet Era. - New York: M. E. Sharpe, 2004. - P. 11; Voskressenski A.D. The Rise of China and Russo-Chinese Relations in the New Global Politics of Eastern Asia // Eager Eyes Fixed on Eurasia: Russia and Its Eastern Edge / ed. by A. Iwashita. - Sapporo: Slavic Research Center, 2007. - P. 3-46; Lo B. Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing, and the New Geopolitics. -Washington: Brookings Institution Press, 2008. - P. 7.

In contrast, skeptics downplay the importance of this asymmetry by highlighting areas of counterbalancing strength, arguing that each country possesses distinct advantages and vulnerabilities. For instance, Russian scholars claim that Russia's military and diplomatic strengths help compensate for its economic and technological limitations relative to China.24 Similarly, Chinese scholars emphasize Russia's abundant natural resources as an offset to its other weaknesses.25

Moreover, believers argue that Russia's greater dependence on China grants Beijing significant leverage over Moscow. They emphasize that Chinese support is more crucial for Russia in countering NATO expansion than Russian backing is for China in the Asia-Pacific region.26 Others point to Russia's reliance on the Chinese market for energy exports, given its limited alternative options in Asia, whereas China's oil and gas imports are more diversified.27 Supporters of this view also stress Russia's concerns, especially under Western sanctions, about its growing reliance on technological cooperation with China, which raises the risk of China dominating the Russian market and establishing technological standards.28

24 Lukin A.V. China and Russia: The New Rapprochement. - Cambridge: Polity, 2018. P. x; Luzyanin S.G. Rossiya — Kitay: formirovaniye obnovlennogo mira. Luzyanin S.G. - Moskva: Ves' mir, 2018.

- P.233.

25 )35^=Fen Y. Ä^Mtä&M : = Transformatsiya Rossii: vneshnyaya politika i rossiysko-kitayskiye otnosheniya / dfc^: tt^^^^Mtt^tt. - Pekin: Izdatel'stvo obshchestvennykh nauk Kitaya, 2018. - 335 p.; Zhang D. : =

Kitaysko-rossiyskiye otnosheniya: retrospektiva i perspektivy // Issledovaniya Rossii.

- 2019. - № 4. - P. 3-15.

26 Buszynski L. Overshadowed by China: The Russia-China Strategic Partnership in the Asia-Pacific Region // The Future of China-Russia Relations / ed. by J.A. Bellacqua. - Lexington: University Press of Kentucky, 2010. - P. 269.

27 Kaczmarski M. Russia-China Relations in the Post-Crisis International Order. - London: Routledge, 2015. - P. 61.

28 Sinkkonen E., Lassila J. Digital Authoritarianism and Technological Cooperation in Sino-Russian Relations: Common Goals and Diverging Standpoints // Russia-China Relations / ed. by S. Kirchberger, S. Sinjen, N. Wörmer. Global Power Shift. - Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2022. - P. 177.

Alternatively, skeptics argue that the partnership with Russia is equally vital for China. According to a retired Chinese major general, China's reunification with Taiwan depends on Russian support as a safe strategic rear, a stable energy supplier, and a diplomatic ally.29 In the context of the Western arms embargo, some Chinese scholars note that China continues to rely on Russia for advanced military technologies and weapon systems, despite its progress in developing domestic capabilities.30 Similarly, Russian scholars contend that China cannot obtain sufficient advanced weaponry and raw materials from other sources.31 More importantly, both countries are capable of addressing their most significant security challenges independently, without support from the other.32 As a nuclear superpower, Russia does not require security guarantees from China, while Chinese security would benefit from Russian protection only in the event of a full-scale conflict with the United States.33

Furthermore, believers argue that China's ability to extract policy concessions from Russia serves as evidence of asymmetry in their relationship. They point to Russia's acceptance of a Chinese military presence in Central Asia, its implicit support for Beijing regarding the South China Sea dispute, and its recognition of China as an Arctic stakeholder.34 Additionally, they highlight inequalities in softer domains, such

29 ï/ëfe=Wang H. Kitaisko-rossiiskie otnosheniia v novom stoletii. - _t/ë:

Shanghai: Izdatel'stvo Shankhaiskogo universiteta, 2015. - P. 153.

30 Yuan J. Sino-Russian Defense Ties: The View from Beijing // The Future of China-Russia Relations / ed. by J.A. Bellacqua. - University Press of Kentucky, 2010. - P. 222.

31 Lukin A.V. Rossiia i Kitai: chetyre veka vzaimodeistviia. Istoriia, sovremennoe sostoianie i perspektivy razvitiia rossiisko-kitaiskikh otnoshenii / A. V. Lukin. - Moskva: Ves' mir, 2013. - P. 631.

32 Weitz R. Growing China-Russia Military Relations: Implications and Opportunities for U.S. Policy // Axis of Authoritarians: Implications of China-Russia Cooperation / ed. by R.J. Ellings, R.G. Sutter. - Washington: National Bureau of Asian Research, 2018. - P. 81-108; Schwartz P. The Military Dimension in Sino-Russian Relations // Sino-Russian Relations in the 21st Century / ed. by J.I. Bekkevold, B. Lo. - Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. - P. 87-112.

33 Kashin V. The current state of Russian-Chinese defense cooperation // CNA. - 2018. - URL: https://www.cna.org/reports/2018/08/D0P-2018-U-018184-Final.pdf

34 Blank S. Triangularism Old and New: China, Russia, and the United States // Sino-Russian Relations in the 21st Century / ed. by J.I. Bekkevold, B. Lo. - Cham: Springer International Publishing,

as broader access for Chinese media to Russian audiences, greater censorship of Russian publishers in China, and prominent Chinese criticism of Russia's celebrations in Vladivostok.35

Figure 1. Contrasting Perspectives on Asymmetry between Russia and

China

Source: Compiled by the author

In contrast, skeptics contend that these concessions do not compromise Russia's core national interests. For instance, Russia's refusal to recognize the Hague Tribunal's ruling on the South China Sea serves to undermine the tribunal's authority with respect

2019. - P. 217; Hsiung C.W., R0seth T. The Arctic Dimension in Sino-Russian Relations // Sino-Russian Relations in the 21st Century / ed. by J.I. Bekkevold, B. Lo. - Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. - P. 168.

35 Denisov I.E., Lukin A.V. Korrektsiya i khedzhirovaniye: dvadtsat' let «bol'shogo dogovora» i evolyutsiya rossiysko-kitayskikh otnosheniy // Rossiya v global'nykh delakh. - 2021. - Vol. 19, - № 4. DOI: 10.31278/1810-6439-2021-19-4-154-172.

to Crimea's legal status.36 Besides, Moscow maintains official neutrality in China's territorial disputes with Japan, India, and Southeast Asian countries.37

The literature review demonstrates that the perspectives of believers and skeptics regarding power asymmetry between Russia and China are not mutually exclusive and may, in fact, complement one another (see Figure 1). This highlights not only the complexity of asymmetry within their relationship but also the ambiguity surrounding its definition in academic discussions. As a result, the issue should be reframed from a binary question of whether power asymmetry exists to a matter-of-degree approach that considers the extent of asymmetry for a more comprehensive understanding. Furthermore, the literature indicates that asymmetry between Russia and China has increased after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but it lacks detailed analyses of how these changes have unfolded over time. There is a clear need for a systematic framework to assess the evolution of this asymmetry and to identify key turning points.

Beyond assessing the presence of asymmetry, the literature also explores the development of Russia-China relations, which are widely regarded as asymmetrical. However, most studies do not specify the causal mechanisms linking power asymmetry to the evolution of this bilateral relationship. This limitation stems from a reliance on descriptive accounts rather than theoretically grounded analyses. Even when theoretical concepts are implicitly referenced, scholars seldom establish a clear theoretical framework prior to drawing descriptive inferences. Overall, scholarly interpretations of the development of these asymmetric relations can be categorized into two main camps: pessimists and optimists.

36 Wong K. H., Law K.Y. : Povorot Rossii

na Vostok»: novaia sila v Vostochnoi Azii? // Hong Kong: Izdatel'stvo

Gorodskogo universiteta Gonkonga, 2021. - 157 p.

37 Titarenko M.L., Petrovskiy V.E. Rossiya, Kitay i novyy mirovoy poryadok. Teoriya i praktika. -Moskva: Ves' mir, 2016. - P. 83.

Pessimists foresee a negative trajectory for the asymmetrical relationship between Russia and China. Some scholars predict a gradual estrangement between the two countries as tensions emerge from the inherent imbalance in their partnership.38 Given their divergent political and economic agendas, disappointments in key areas of cooperation may breed indifference and limit their relationship to a largely tactical partnership.

In addition, some historians warn of history repeating itself in the form of renewed conflict and tension between Russia and China. A Russian scholar, for instance, draws parallels to China's historically unequal treatment of Russia, citing the Treaty of Nerchinsk, which was signed under military pressure and symbolized Russia's subordination within the Tianxia system, as analogous to the current growing pressure from Beijing on Moscow.39 This apprehension is shared by a Western historian, who argues that China's rise, shaped by historical grievances, may prompt a more assertive foreign policy toward its neighbors, including Russia.40

Conversely, optimists anticipate a strengthening of Russia-China relations despite the existing asymmetry, citing several explanations. First, some scholars emphasize pragmatic interests and mutual benefits. For instance, the potential for joint development and complementarity enables both countries to enhance their international standing through mutually advantageous cooperation. 41 This mechanism of mutual complementation could entail Moscow leveraging its military and strategic strengths in exchange for Beijing's economic and technological capabilities.42

38 Lo B. Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing, and the New Geopolitics. - Washington: Brookings Institution Press, 2008. - P. 192.

39 Galenovich Y.M. Vzglyad na Rossiyu iz Kitaya. Proshloye i nastoyashcheye Rossii i nashikh otnosheniy s Kitayem. - Moskva: Vremya, 2010. - 575 p.

40 Foot R. Remembering the Past to Secure the Present: Versailles Legacies in a Resurgent China // International Affairs. - Vol. 95, - no. 1. - P. 143-160. DOI: 10.1093/ia/iiy211.

41 Kuzyk B.N., Titarenko M.L. China - Russia 2050. Co-Development Strategy. - Moscow. Institute for Economic Strategies, 2006. - P. 586-587.

42 Luzyanin S.G. Rossiya — Kitay: formirovaniye obnovlennogo mira. Luzyanin S.G. - Moskva: Ves' mir, 2018. - P. 223.

Second, other scholars emphasize the growing interdependence and harmonious interactions between Russia and China, suggesting that the relationship can be sustained through continual readjustment of interests via political, economic, and cultural engagement.43 Despite existing power disparities, China's willingness to treat Russia as an equal partner, along with Moscow's adept diplomacy, further strengthens their bilateral ties.44 Additionally, China's display of self-restraint helps Russia adapt more comfortably to the shifting balance of power.45 While Chinese scholars acknowledge the historical grievances that have existed between the two countries, they underscore the importance of responding to Moscow's current insecurities.46

Third, some scholars attribute the positive trajectory of Russia-China relations to shared identities. They argue that strengthened ties stem from a narrowing identity gap, driven by a mutual antipathy to Western interference in domestic affairs.47 Both countries seek to assert great power status and reject liberal democratic values, fostering a shared identity that underpins cooperation.48 Nevertheless, the rise of Sinocentrism may present future challenges for Moscow.

43 Voskressenski A.D. Russia and China: A Theory of Inter-State Relations. - London; New York: Routledge Curzon, 2003. - P. 203.

44 Wilson J.L. Strategic Partners: Russian-Chinese Relations in the Post-Soviet Era. - New York: M. E. Sharpe, 2004. - P. 10, 201.

45 Kaczmarski M. The Asymmetric Partnership? Russia's Turn to China // International Politics. -2016. - Vol. 53, - no. 3. - P. 415-434. DOI: 10.1057/ip.2016.7.

46 31^= Jiang, Y. Kitaisko-rossiiskie otnosheniia v novuiu epokhu. - dfc^: # #^iRtt^±=Beijing: Izdatel'stvo «Vsemirnye znaniia», 2007. - 231 p.

47 Rozman G. The Sino-Russian Challenge to the World Order: National Identities, Bilateral Relations, and East versus West in the 2010s. - Washington: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 2014. - P. 256; Wishnick E. In search of the 'Other' in Asia: Russia-China relations revisited // The Pacific Review. - 2017. - Vol. 30, - № 1. - P. 114-132. DOI 10.1080/09512748.2016.1201129

48 Larson D.W. An Equal Partnership of Unequals: China's and Russia's New Status Relationship // International Politics. - 2020. - Vol. 57, - no. 5. - P. 790-808. DOI: 10.1057/s41311-019-00177-9.

Gradual Estrangement

Setbacks in key areas of cooperation may confine the relationship to a largely tactical partnership

Recurring Tensions

Periods of renewed conflict and tension between Russia and China

Pragmatism and Mutual Benefit

Opportunities for joint development and complementary cooperation

o ©

Development of Asymmetrical Russia-China

Relations © ©

Geopolitics

Russia and China work to advance a multipolar international order as an alternative to the existing unipolar system

Converging Identities

The identity gap narrows as both countries share growing antipathy toward the West

Adjustment and Adaptation

China's self-restraint helps Russia adapt to the shifting balance of power

Figure 2. Contrasting Perspectives on the Development of Asymmetrical

Russia-China Relations

Source: Compiled by the author

Lastly, some scholars emphasize geopolitical factors, arguing that the West and particularly the United States represents a more immediate threat to Russia than China does.49 As a result, Russia and China seek to promote a multipolar international order as an alternative to the prevailing unipolar system.50 If the global polarity were to shift, Russia's policy toward China could correspondingly change.51 At the same time, while

49 Portyakov V. Vneshnyaya politika Kitayskoy Narodnoy Respubliki v XXI stoletii. Petrovskiy V.E. - Moskva: Institut Dal'nego Vostoka RAN, 2015. - P. 172.

50 Lukin A.V. China and Russia: The New Rapprochement. - Cambridge: Polity, 2018. - P. 175.

51 Lukin A.V. Pik minoval? Rossiyskaya strategiya v otnoshenii Kitaya v novuyu epokhu // Rossiya v global'nykh delakh. - 2020. - № 3 (103). URL: https://globalaffairs.ru/articles/pik-minoval/.

the two countries cooperate to counter unipolarity, they occasionally hedge against each other at the regional level according to their respective interests, creating a sense of ambivalence.52 In this context, Russia is advised to guard against overdependence on China by fostering ties with other regional powers.53

The literature review presents a wide range of explanations for the evolution of Russia-China relations under conditions of power asymmetry, often drawing on area-specific expertise (see Figure 2). Some scholars deliberately reject international relations theory in favor of analyses grounded in the changing perceptions of the two countries themselves.54 They argue that international relations theories can be unidimensional, ahistorical, and static, thus risking oversimplification of complex realities. However, the area studies approach is not without its own methodological limitations, as it may introduce bias through subjective source selection and interpretation of facts.55

A theoretical approach can help clarify the causal mechanisms linking power asymmetry to the dynamics of the Russia-China relationship, thereby deepening our specific understanding of these relations and contributing more broadly to international relations theory.56 Furthermore, the predominance of non-theoretical explanations has hindered the accumulation of knowledge in the study of Russia-China relations, as the lack of explicit assumptions and causal mechanisms disrupts effective scholarly communication.57

52 Korolev A. Systemic Balancing and Regional Hedging: China-Russia Relations // The Chinese Journal of International Politics. - 2016. - Vol. 9, - no. 4. - P. 375-397. DOI: 10.1093/cjip/pow013.

53 Denisov I.E., Lukin A.V. Russia's China Policy: Growing Asymmetries and Hedging Options // Russian Politics. - 2021. - Vol. 6, - no. 4. - P. 531-550. DOI: 10.30965/24518921-00604007.

54 Lukin A.V. China and Russia: The New Rapprochement. - Cambridge: Polity, 2018. - P. xv.

55 Voskressenski A.D. Russia and China: A Theory of Inter-State Relations. - London; New York: Routledge Curzon, 2003. - P. 24.

56 Yoder B.K. Theoretical rigor and the study of contemporary cases: explaining post-Cold War China-Russia relations // International Politics. - 2020. - Vol. 57, - № 5. - P. 741-759. DOI 10.1057/s41311-019-00173-z.

57 Korolev A. China-Russia Strategic Alignment in International Politics. - Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press, 2022. - P. 18.

Research Object and Subject

This research centers on the phenomenon of asymmetry between great powers, aiming to explicate both the nature of power asymmetry and its impact on bilateral relations. The specific focus is the relationship between Russia and China after the end of the Cold War, which is characterized as an increasingly asymmetrical strategic partnership. The study analyzes both exogenous and endogenous factors influencing Russia-China relations to provide a multidimensional understanding of the development of their bilateral ties. This analysis encompasses military, economic, soft power, financial, and technological dimensions, considered at the global, regional, state, and individual levels. For analytical clarity, the post-Cold War era, from 1992 to the present, is divided into five periods based on pivotal geopolitical events that have significantly influenced the power dynamics in Russia-China relations: (1) the collapse of the Soviet Union, (2) the September 11 terrorist attacks, (3) the global financial crisis, (4) the Crimean crisis, and (5) the Russian special military operation in Ukraine.58 Aim and Objectives of the Thesis

This doctoral thesis seeks to address two main research questions:

• RQ1: What is the nature and evolution of power asymmetry between Russia and China?

• RQ2: What are the implications of power asymmetry for the Russia-China partnership?

To answer the first research question, this thesis aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the complex nature of power asymmetry between Russia and China, approaching the concept as a matter of degree through an objective analytical

58 The author recognizes that the term "post-Cold War era" may be contested, as some scholars argue that the Cold War has not truly ended and suggest that the current international system is entering a new phase, often described as Cold War 2.0 or 3.0. For the purposes of this thesis, however, the post-Cold War era is defined as the period from 1992 to the present, following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

framework. Rather than treating power asymmetry as a static phenomenon, the study systematically traces both changes and continuities in the asymmetry of Russia-China relations since the end of the Cold War. Furthermore, the thesis aspires to deliver theory-based explanations that integrate area-specific knowledge regarding the effects of power asymmetry on Russia-China relations, and to draw broader theoretical implications for understanding asymmetrical relationships between great powers. Research Novelty, Scientific and Professional Significance

The primary novelty of this thesis lies in the introduction of a new conceptual framework for assessing the degree and evolution of asymmetrical international relations, evaluating power asymmetry across three dimensions: intensity, depth, and breadth. First, the intensity of asymmetry refers to the degree of disparity, measured quantitatively, such as one side exceeding the other by one-half, double, or tenfold. Second, the depth of asymmetry encompasses qualitative differences between states, ranging from disparities in capabilities to disproportionate dependence and imbalances of influence. This reconceptualization goes beyond the conventional definition of asymmetry in international relations by integrating both dispositional and relational concepts of power. Third, the breadth of asymmetrical relations covers disparities across military, economic, soft power, financial, and technological spheres, which are central concerns in mainstream international relations theory. This three-dimensional framework enables a systematic and comprehensive assessment of power asymmetry between states in a complex and longitudinal manner.

The theoretical significance of this thesis is twofold: it involves testing hypotheses about asymmetrical great-power relations and using inductive reasoning to draw broader insights about asymmetrical international relationships based on the case of Russia-China relations. On the one hand, this study tests contrasting hypotheses from defensive and offensive realism regarding state behavior in asymmetrical relationships, using Russia-China relations as a case study. Neorealism, which places particular

emphasis on power, offers clear predictions about the dynamics between asymmetrical states. However, defensive and offensive realism foresee different trajectories for Russia-China relations. Offensive realists expect Russia to balance against a rising China in order to prevent Beijing from achieving regional hegemony.59 In contrast, defensive realists predict that Moscow will bandwagon with Beijing to counter American hegemony and help restore global balance.60 By evaluating these hypotheses in the context of Russia-China relations, this study seeks to determine which theory offers greater explanatory power.

On the other hand, this thesis applies the theoretical framework of multi-factor equilibrium to draw broader implications for the evolution of asymmetrical great-power relations, using the Russia-China relationship as a case study. Originally developed to explain both continuity and change in Russia-China relations from the seventeenth to the twentieth centuries, this framework remains relevant for examining asymmetrical ties in contemporary contexts.61 Unlike the structural analysis of realism, which often neglects temporal dynamics, the multi-factor equilibrium approach is integrative: it considers a variety of variables beyond the military dimension and at multiple levels. In contrast to the static concept of balance of power, it views equilibrium as a complex and dynamic process, making it well-suited for analyzing the evolution of asymmetrical relations over time. Ultimately, this framework allows for the generation of theoretical propositions about the development of asymmetrical relationships, derived from empirical observations of Russia-China relations.

Empirically, this thesis employs the Russia-China relationship as a case study to advance the study of asymmetry in international relations beyond both the small-state narrative and the prevailing US-centered perspective. Much of the existing literature

59 Mearsheimer J.J. Can China rise peacefully? // The National Interest. - 2014. October 25. - URL: https://nationalinterest.org/commentary/can-china-rise-peacefully-10204.

60 Waltz K.N. Theory of International Politics. - Boston: McGraw-Hill, 1979. - P. 126.

61 Voskressenski A.D. Russia and China: A Theory of Inter-State Relations. - London; New York: Routledge Curzon, 2003. - P. 55-87.

focuses on interactions between great powers and smaller states, such as Sino-Vietnamese, Sino-Myanmar, or US-Latin American relations.62 Some scholars have even excluded great power relations from the study of asymmetry by arguing that weaker states cannot effectively challenge stronger ones.63 However, the critical factor is the nature of the relationship, not merely the size of the states involved.64 The asymmetrical relationship between Russia and China demonstrates that power asymmetry can exist between great powers, though it manifests differently—a subject that has received limited scholarly attention. Additionally, current research is often US-centric, concentrating on asymmetrical alliances with Western states.65 The Russia-China case stands out because both countries are non-Western powers.

Furthermore, this thesis enhances empirical understanding of Russia-China relations in the post-Cold War era. It draws on a wide range of literature in Russian, Chinese, and English from the past three decades to ensure a balanced analysis. In addition, this research contributes to the development of a comprehensive database by compiling extensive data on Russian and Chinese capabilities, as well as the levels of interdependence and diversification between the two countries from 1992 to 2024. This database helps fill a gap in available resources for public, professional, and governmental use.66

62 Womack B. China and Vietnam: The Politics of Asymmetry. - Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006. - 307 p.; Long T. Latin America Confronts the United States: Asymmetry and Influence. - Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2015. - 282 p.; Efremova K.A. Neravnovesnyye derzhavy: M'yanma v strategicheskom treugol'nike «Kitay - Indiya - ASEAN». - Moscow: MGIMO University, 2016. - 435 p.

63 Womack B. Asymmetry and International Relationships. - Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2016. - P. 56.

64 Long T. It's Not the Size, It's the Relationship: From 'Small States' to Asymmetry // International Politics. - 2017. - Vol. 54, - no. 2. - P. 144-160. DOI: 10.1057/s41311-017-0028-x.

65 Von Hlatky St. American Allies in Times of War: The Great Asymmetry. - Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013. - P. 9; Xu R. Alliance Persistence within the Anglo-American Special Relationship: The Post-Cold War Era. - Cham: Springer International Publishing AG, 2017. - P. 58.

66 In an email interview conducted with the Russian sinologist Alexander Larin in June 2023, he indicated that the question of whether the Russian government maintains its own assessment of Chinese power is a sensitive matter that has not been discussed publicly. While it is generally assumed

Methodology and Methods of the Research

This section describes the research methodology adopted for this thesis, which examines the asymmetry between Russia and China. In-depth Case Study

This thesis utilizes an in-depth case study of Russia-China relations to investigate

the characteristics of power asymmetry between great powers and its implications for their strategic partnership. A single-case approach enables a thorough analysis of specific data and details, offering a deeper understanding of the research subject.67 The Russia-China partnership was chosen through purposive sampling to illuminate features of power asymmetry within great-power relations. Unlike other potential cases, such as the asymmetrical US-UK alliance, the Russia-China partnership is particularly significant because both countries are great powers beyond the Western world and their cooperation could profoundly affect the international system, potentially even challenging American hegemony. Mixed-Methods

Asymmetry between Russia and China was assessed using both quantitative and qualitative methods to capture the nuanced dimensions of national power. The balance of capabilities was evaluated primarily through quantitative measures of relative resource possession. Rather than adopting a minimalist approach that focuses solely on military expenditure or economic performance, this thesis employed a maximalist strategy, incorporating a wide range of capability indicators. The selection of relevant variables was informed by input from diverse experts, including power theorists, international relations scholars, and area specialists. While considering a larger number of indicators may complicate the analysis, this approach is better suited for small-N

that Russia would possess such an assessment, particularly before supplying arms to China, Larin referenced an alternative perspective. According to this view, there is a lack of comprehensive evaluation regarding the balance of power between Russia and China. This deficiency may stem from Moscow's belief that an arms race with Beijing would be futile and that Russia's nuclear arsenal serves as a sufficient deterrent against China.

67 George A.L., Bennett A. Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences. BCSIA Studies in International Security. - Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2005. - P. 20-22.

studies, as it captures the complexity of specific cases. Data on Russian and Chinese capabilities and their interdependence were gathered from official sources, including Foreign Trade Statistics of the Russian Federation and China Customs Statistics for the economic dimension,68 External Sector Statistics published by the Bank of Russia for the financial dimension,69 and Official Statistical Yearbooks published by Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation (Rosstat) and National Bureau of Statistics of China for the socio-economic dimension.70 In addition, statistics from international organizations, think tanks, and polling agencies were utilized to supplement and triangulate the analysis.

Quantitative findings were supplemented with qualitative analyses, such as expert assessments, to address potential limitations and distortions in the data. Missing data are most likely to occur for the early 1990s and the most recent period following the Russian special military operation. These gaps were addressed according to the respective timeframes. For the early 1990s, incomplete data were addressed by assuming Russian superiority, based on the legacy of the Soviet Union. In cases where recent Russian data are unavailable, mirror statistics from other countries were used or previous trends were projected forward. While these approaches have inherent limitations and may affect reliability, they nonetheless provide valuable insights into the balance of capabilities between Russia and China.

68 Vneshnyaya torgovlya [Electronic resource] // Rosstat. - URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru/statistics/vneshnyaya_torgovlya (retrieved on: 11.06.2025); Haiguan Tongji Shuju [Customs Statistics] [Electronic resource] // General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China. - 2024. - Text: electronic. - URL: http://stats.customs.gov.cn/ (retrieved on 11.06.2025).

69 Statistika vneshnego sektora // Bank Rossii. - URL: https://www.cbr.ru/statistics/macro_itm/external_sector/ (retrieved on 11.06.2025).

70 Rossiyskiy statisticheskiy ezhegodnik [Electronic resource] // Rosstat. - URL:

https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/210/document/12994 (retrieved on: 11.06.2025); ^Ulltt^ = National Bureau of Statistics of China. ^H^it^^ = China Statistical Yearbook [Electronic

resource]. - URL: https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/ndsj/ (retrieved on: 11.06.2025).

Quantitative assessments of national power inevitably involve a degree of subjectivity. However, this thesis implemented several measures to mitigate such challenges and enhance reliability. First, a multidimensional framework was employed to disaggregate power into five distinct categories: military, economic, soft power, financial, and technological. By presenting asymmetry in each area separately, the analysis avoids oversimplification. Second, recognizing that power is dynamic and that certain dimensions hold greater significance depending on the context, this study incorporated not only hard power (military and economic) but also soft power (cultural and diplomatic) and smart power (financial and technological), which are increasingly important in contemporary analyses.71 Assuming equal weight for all dimensions of power prevents the overemphasis of military capabilities and implies that each dimension holds comparable significance in the contemporary world.

Additionally, the balance of dependence was determined by three factors: the level of self-sufficiency, the overall importance of the relationship, and differences in bilateral trade shares. First, self-sufficiency reflects the extent to which a state relies on imports to meet domestic needs, even though a self-sufficient state may still rely heavily on export markets. Second, the level of interaction, which is measured through indicators such as trade shares, demonstrates the significance of the bilateral relationship. A high level of interaction is a prerequisite for the risk of overdependence, although the extent of this risk ultimately depends on the specific dynamics involved. Third, differences in bilateral trade ratios compared to global trade indicate which country is more dependent on the other and assess the possibility for diversification.72 Disproportionate dependence occurs when a state has low self-sufficiency, high levels

71 In this thesis, "smart power" refers to forms of power that have emerged in the knowledge economy, which differs somewhat from Joseph Nye's definition of smart power as "the ability to combine hard and soft power resources into effective strategies." See Nye J.S. The Future of Power. - New York: PublicAffairs, 2011. - P. 22-23.

72 Barbieri K. Economic Interdependence: A Path to Peace or a Source of Interstate Conflict? // Journal of Peace Research. - 1996. - Vol. 33. - no. 1. - P. 29-49. DOI: 10.1177/0022343396033001003.

of interaction, and substantial trade share disparities with its partner, suggesting limited options for diversification.

Furthermore, the balance of influence was assessed qualitatively through case studies of policy controversies in which one state is alleged to have made unilateral concessions to the other. In the context of Russia-China relations, this assessment focuses primarily on major bilateral agreements concluded after the end of the Cold War. Key cases include the implementation of the Sino-Soviet eastern border agreement in the 1990s, its supplementary agreement signed in 2004, Rosneft's oil-for-loans arrangements with China following the global financial crisis, the gas deal between Gazprom and the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), the conjugation of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) with the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB), the 5G agreement between MTS and Huawei after the Crimea crisis, and the postponement of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline project after Russia's special military operation in Ukraine.

These cases were selected due to the high level of controversy they have generated, particularly among Western scholars and experts who contend that Russian interests were compromised in favor of China. This thesis undertakes a closer examination of these cases to evaluate the validity of such claims, specifically by analyzing whether China influenced Russia to act against its core interests across various dimensions and periods and whether concessions made by one state were reciprocated to accommodate both sides' interests during negotiations. Other potential cases, such as the Yamal LNG project, the Moscow-Kazan high-speed railway project, and the yuanization of the Russian economy, were excluded from the study due to their less controversial nature and are thus beyond the scope of this research.

The use of mixed methods to assess the balance of capability, dependence, and influence addresses the limitations inherent in each individual approach. Statistics on national capabilities are generally accessible and reliable, yet they are less valid for

capturing the true dynamics of asymmetrical interstate relations due to their largely dispositional character. Observations of relative influence provide a better measure of the substance of the relationship, but often face methodological challenges stemming from limited data availability and reliability. Case studies, while insightful, are episodic and do not allow for a continuous assessment of the evolution of power asymmetry over time. In contrast, data on state dependence offers a middle ground, providing greater validity than capability statistics and better availability and reliability than qualitative observations. Nevertheless, the balance of dependence reflects the leverage each state holds over the other, but does not always translate directly into actual influence. Process Tracing

Finally, a process-tracing approach is employed to examine the development of the Russia-China partnership within the context of evolving power asymmetry, with the aim of identifying causal mechanisms between the two. Using the multi-factor equilibrium theoretical framework, the study considers both endogenous and exogenous factors in the relationship and investigates how changes in power asymmetry contribute to either stability or instability, as well as to the progression or regression of their partnership.

The analysis relies on a broad array of primary sources, including official documents, joint statements, and leaders' speeches. The Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation between the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China establishes the foundational principles guiding bilateral relations and provides insight into the formal commitments and strategic priorities of both states. Other key documents such as the Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation and the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation are examined to assess how Russia frames its partnership with China and articulates perceived threats. 73 This is

73 Kontseptsiya vneshney politiki Rossiyskoy Federatsii (utverzhdena Prezidentom Rossiyskoy Federatsii V. V. Putinym 31 marta 2023 g.) // The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. - 2023. - Text: electronic. - URL: https://www.mid.ru/ru/detail-material-page/1860586/

complemented by close readings of China's White Papers on Foreign Policy and International Strategy, as well as China's National Defense in the New Era, to draw parallels.74 Moreover, joint statements issued after Russia-China summits and records of high-level visits are analyzed to interpret diplomatic language, power dynamics, and shared interests. Furthermore, the founding documents and summit declarations of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS, in which both countries are founding members, illuminate potential asymmetries in leadership roles and agenda setting.75

This primary-source analysis is further supplemented by secondary scholarly literature in multiple languages to ensure comprehensive coverage and robust data triangulation. Additionally, expert interviews with Russian sinologists were conducted to validate the findings and provide nuanced, insider perspectives on the nature and implications of power asymmetry in the bilateral relationship.76

(retrieved on 20.03.2024); Strategiya natsional'noy bezopasnosti Rossiyskoy Federatsii ot 2 iyulya 2021 g. // The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. - 2021. - Text: electronic. -URL: https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/official_documents/1784948/ (retrieved on 20.03.2024).

74 kniga o mezhdunarodnom razvitii i sotrudnichestve

Kitaya v novuyu epokhu // ^^ASÄ^HH^^=Gossovet KNR. - January 10, 2021. - Text: electronic. - URL: https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/2021-01/10/content_5578617.htm (retrieved on 27.06.2025); Natsional'naya bezopasnost' Kitaya v novuyu epokhu // ^^

ASÄ^Ü^ß =Gossovet KNR. - July 24, 2019. - Text: electronic. - URL:

http://big5.www.gov.cn/gate/big5/www.gov.cn/zhengce/2019-07/24/content_5414325.htm (retrieved on 27.06.2025).

75 Khartiya Shanghayskoy organizatsii sotrudnichestva // Sekretariat Shanghayskoy organizatsii sotrudnichestva. - June 7, 2002. - Text: electronic. - URL: https://rus.sectsco.org/images/07e8/0c/03/1608560.pdf (retrieved on 20.03.2024); Joint Statement of the BRIC Countries' Leaders (Yekaterinburg, Russia, June 16, 2009) // BRICS. - 2009. - Text: electronic. - URL: https://infobrics.org/document/3/ (retrieved on 20.03.2024).

76 The author conducted interviews with 11 Russian sinologists in Moscow between March and October 2023.

Statements to be Defended

This thesis posits that disparities in national capabilities do not automatically translate into dependency or unequal relations. Establishing disproportionate dependence, which is sufficient to extract unilateral policy concessions, requires substantial time and effort from the more powerful state. This process is shaped by complex interactions and negotiations, rather than by a straightforward transfer of influence rooted solely in capability differences. Consequently, the extent of power asymmetry between Russia and China has often been exaggerated by some Western scholars who argue that Moscow is becoming a junior partner to Beijing. While China holds greater capabilities, it has not created the kind of broad-based dependency that would force Russia to act against its own interests. Absent such dependency, Moscow is unlikely to become subordinate to China or to undertake actions that contradict its strategic objectives merely in response to Chinese pressure. This argument highlights the complexity of power asymmetry and underscores the need to examine not only capabilities, but also the degrees of dependence and influence in asymmetrical relationships.

Furthermore, this thesis contends that a multi-factor equilibrium framework, which integrates both structural analysis and area-specific knowledge, offers the most effective theoretical approach for explaining the complexity of asymmetrical Russia-China relations. Despite increasing asymmetry, a weaker Russia tends to bandwagon with a stronger and neighboring China in order to counterbalance American hegemony. Driven by its aspiration to serve as an independent and autonomous pole in a multipolar international system, Russia's foreign policy focuses more on the global balance of power than on regional dynamics. As a result, defensive realism, rather than offensive realism, better accounts for the development of asymmetrical relations between bordering great powers. Nevertheless, structural analysis alone cannot fully capture the evolving dynamics of asymmetrical Russia-China relations, highlighting the need for

area-specific knowledge. Moscow perceives greater threats to its interests from a

structurally imbalanced system dominated by the United States than from China's rise

as a potential regional hegemon. Russia's nuclear superiority also provides a robust

safeguard for its national security in the event of a potential military threat from China.

Additionally, China has demonstrated self-restraint, choosing not to challenge Russia's

demands for national sovereignty and autonomy.

Specifically, this thesis advances seven central statements to be defended, namely:

1. This thesis identifies ambiguity in the conventional definition of asymmetry in international relations. Asymmetry is typically defined as a disparity in national capabilities, but it can also encompass asymmetrical dependence and imbalanced influence, complicating scholarly discussions.

• By redefining "asymmetry" in international relations to encompass both dispositional factors (disparity of capabilities) and relational aspects (disproportionate dependence and imbalance of influence), this thesis introduces an important conceptual advancement. The depth of asymmetrical relations is captured through these forms of power asymmetry, while their breadth is determined by the range of spheres—military, economic, cultural, financial, and technological—across which asymmetry exists. This framework offers a novel approach for assessing both the degree and the evolution of asymmetry between states, accounting for qualitative (changes in depth or breadth) and quantitative (increases or decreases in intensity) shifts.

2. The thesis reveals that Western scholars have exaggerated the degree of asymmetry between Russia and China. From the post-September 11 period to the present Russian special military operation in Ukraine, asymmetry between the two countries has mainly reflected disparities in capabilities. Asymmetrical dependence only emerged during Russia's special military operation in Ukraine,

primarily in the technological sphere, and even then, its intensity has remained limited. As a result, China's influence over Russia remains largely potential rather than actual.

• This thesis extends and challenges prevailing perspectives in Western academic circles, where it is often argued that asymmetry between Russia and China is intensifying. While this study concurs with the general trend, it provides a more objective method for evaluating it and refutes the idea that Moscow is becoming a subordinate junior partner to Beijing, noting that disparities in capabilities do not automatically result in dependency or inequality.

3. Contrary to the prevailing view that the asymmetry between Russia and China was countervailing, this study finds that such balance existed primarily during the post-September 11 period, when Russia's relative strengths in military and economic spheres offset its weaknesses in soft power, finance, and technology. However, this perspective became increasingly difficult to sustain during and after the global financial crisis, as Russia also lost its relative economic advantages. Compounding the issue, Russia's remaining military superiority over China has become less significant during its special military operation in Ukraine, rendering the notion of countervailing asymmetry increasingly problematic.

• The findings support the possibility of countervailing asymmetries but challenge the dominant view among Russian and Chinese scholars who frequently downplay the issue of asymmetry by asserting that each country's strengths and weaknesses simply offset each other.

4. This thesis argues that defensive realism, rather than offensive realism, provides a more accurate framework for analyzing asymmetrical relations between great powers with shared borders, such as Russia and China. In contrast to offensive

realist predictions, Russia did not seek to balance against a stronger China. Instead, Moscow aligned with Beijing to counterbalance the United States and restore global equilibrium, as defensive realism would suggest.

• This thesis offers theoretical clarification by examining how two schools of neorealism—defensive and offensive—differ in their predictions for asymmetrical Russia-China relations, which are often incorrectly treated as uniform. While some scholars interpret Russia's lack of balancing against China as anomalous within neorealist balance-of-power theory, this thesis demonstrates that such behavior contradicts offensive realism but is consistent with defensive realism.

5. Drawing on the theory of multi-factor equilibrium, this thesis finds that asymmetrical Russia-China relations have remained stable and progressive in the post-Cold War era, primarily due to converging interests in restoring the global balance of power, regional stability, bilateral cooperation, and regime consolidation. While divergences persist, such as differing regional agendas and limited humanitarian ties, these are mitigated by shared objectives. Mutual restraint and continued attempts to accommodate each other's interests have further helped manage growing asymmetry.

• Originally introduced in the late 1990s for studying Russia-China relations, the multi-factor equilibrium theory is applied here to a new context: analyzing contemporary Russia-China relations in the 21st century, with particular attention to asymmetry.

6. The research reveals a correlation between shifts in power asymmetry and China's strategic behavior, but not Russia's. Following the reversal in asymmetry after September 11, China became more attuned to the changing balance of power, adopting strategies of reassurance and self-restraint. Despite the evolving asymmetry, Russia maintained its engagement strategy until

external events, such as the Crimean crisis and the Russian special military operation in Ukraine, prompted Moscow to deepen its alignment with Beijing.

• This study is among the first to explore the correlation between the evolution of asymmetry and the strategic behavior of states. While weaker states are typically assumed to be more reactive to shifting power dynamics, this research reveals that the stronger state often demonstrates greater sensitivity and responsiveness to changes in asymmetry, challenging conventional expectations and providing a more nuanced understanding of strategic adaptation.

7. Finally, this thesis demonstrates that asymmetrical relations are not limited to interactions between great powers and small states. Instead, they can also characterize relations between great powers themselves. While there is potential for power transition or reversal of asymmetry over time among great powers, such shifts are unlikely in relations with small states, which lack the capacity to significantly challenge great power status.

• In contrast to conventional literature, which tends to assess asymmetry based on the absolute size and status of states (as either small states or great powers), this thesis advocates for a relative understanding of asymmetry. By emphasizing the dynamic interactions between stronger and weaker states, regardless of traditional classifications, this approach permits a more nuanced analysis of power dynamics and dependency, yielding deeper insights into the nature of asymmetry in international relations.

Presentation and Validation of the Research Results

This thesis was completed at the Institute of International Studies, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. The main findings and arguments of the thesis are presented in the following published works.

Monographs and book chapters:

1. It», Вонг Ка Хо, Лав Кам Йи.

?=«Поворот России на Восток»: новая сила в Восточной Азии? // Щ

1 : Щ 1 Ш i А ^ =Гонконг: Издательство Городского

университета Гонконга. - 2021. - 157c. (7,2 п.л. / 3,6 п.л.) Scientific publications in the list of VAK, Scopus, Web of Science journals:

1. Wong, K. Russia's Attitude towards the Taiwan Crises since Putin Came to Power / K. Wong, K. Law // China: An International Journal. - 2024. - Vol. 22. - No. 1. - P. 60-84. (1,1 п.л. / 0,55 п.л.) (Scopus)

2. Wong, K. Russia's Turn to East and "Asymmetrical" Sino-Russian Relations: History and Facts / K. Wong // China Review. - 2023. - Vol. 23. -No. 4. - P. 287-314. (1,2 п.л.) (Web of Science)

3. Wong, K. China's Strategic Partnership with Russia amid the COVID-19 Pandemic/ K. Wong, L. K. Ho // China Review. - 2022. - Vol. 22. - No. 2. -P. 285-313. (1,3 п.л. / 0,65 п.л.) (Web of Science)

4. Wong, K. South Korea-Russia Rapprochement: Bringing Geo-economy Back on the Agenda? / K. Wong, K. Law // East Asian Policy. - 2021. - Vol. 13. - No. 3. - P. 117-131. (0,63 п.л. / 0,3 п.л.) (Web of Science)

5. Wong, K. Analysis of Chinese Narrative of World Order and Foreign Policy: Is China a Revisionist or Reformist power?/ K. Wong // Сравнительная политика. - 2018. - Vol. 9. - No. 3. - P. 154-161. (0,3 п.л.) (Перечень ВАК)

The author also presented preliminary results from the thesis at several international academic conferences.

1. Association of International Politics and Security (INTPOLSEC) Annual International Security Congress (inonu University, Turkey, September 2022).

Topic of the report: "China's Strategic Partnership with Russia in the Context of COVID-19."

2. Asian Political and International Studies Association (APISA) 16th Annual Congress (Chiang Mai University, Thailand, December 2022). Topic of the report: "Reassessing Russia's Turn to the East: Asian Countries' Responses to Russia's Actions in Crimea and Donbas."

3. The 12th East Asian Conference on Slavic Eurasian Studies (Hanyang University, South Korea, June 2024). Topic of the report: "Exploiting Asymmetrical Sino-Russian Relations: China as a Mediator in the Ukraine Conflict?"

4. 2025 International Conference War and Peace: Russia and Eurasia -Development and Exploration (National Chengchi University, Taiwan, June 2025). Topic of the report: "Russian Scholarly Perspectives on Russian-Chinese Relations Before and After the Ukraine Conflict."

5. XI International Council for Central and East European Studies (ICCEES) World Congress (University College London, UK, July 2025). Topic of the report: "Asymmetry without Dependency and Inequality: Asymmetrical Russia-China Relations in the Post-Cold War Era."

Thesis Structure

This thesis is organized into three parts: conceptual and theoretical frameworks, empirical analysis, and theoretical implications.

The first chapter lays the conceptual and theoretical foundation for the empirical study of asymmetrical Russia-China relations after the end of the Cold War. It begins by redefining the concept of power in international relations and then reconceptualizes asymmetry to capture the intensity, depth, and breadth of asymmetrical interstate relations. The chapter also reviews relevant international relations theories to identify key hypotheses about the causal link between power asymmetry and interstate relations,

before introducing the multi-factor equilibrium framework as a more effective approach for studying asymmetrical Russia-China relations.

Building on the conceptualization of asymmetry, the second chapter presents empirical findings regarding the evolution of power asymmetry between Russia and China in five distinct periods following key events, including the collapse of the Soviet Union (1992-2000), the September 11 terrorist attacks (2001-2007), the global financial crisis (2008-2013), the Crimean crisis (2014-2021), and the Russian special military operation in Ukraine (2022-2024). It illustrates the balance of capability, dependence, and influence between the two countries across military, economic, soft power, financial, and technological dimensions in each period, assessing the intensity, depth, and breadth of asymmetry in Russia-China relations after the end of the Cold War.

After identifying the nature and evolution of power asymmetry between Russia and China, the third chapter analyzes the development of asymmetrical Russia-China relations over these periods. By examining the strategic behavior of Russia and China, it tests whether hypotheses derived from defensive or offensive realism better explain the impact of asymmetry on the bilateral relationship in the post-Cold War era. Beyond structural analysis, this chapter also illustrates the converging and diverging interests between Russia and China to determine the direction of development in their relations amid changes in power asymmetry, based on the multi-factor equilibrium.

Ultimately, the concluding chapter summarizes key research findings and develops causal mechanisms between the evolution of power asymmetry and its implications for Russia-China relations over the past three decades. Drawing on the case study of asymmetrical Russia-China relations, the conclusion also offers broader theoretical insights into the impact of power asymmetry on great-power relations in general.

Заключение диссертации по теме «Другие cпециальности», Вонг Ка Хо

CONCLUSION

This doctoral thesis makes significant conceptual, theoretical, and empirical contributions to the study of asymmetry between great powers, with particular emphasis on the Russia-China strategic partnership. Conceptually, it redefines power in international relations as encompassing capability, autonomy, and influence, and thereby reconceptualizes asymmetry by integrating both dispositional and relational perspectives. Asymmetry is categorized into three stages: disparity of capability, disproportion of dependence, and imbalance of influence. The thesis develops an objective and systematic framework to assess the degree and evolution of power asymmetry, examining its intensity, depth, and breadth. The intensity of asymmetry refers to quantitative differences; the three stages reflect the depth of asymmetrical relations; and the breadth is determined by the range of dimensions involved, including military, economic, soft power, financial, and technological domains. Qualitative changes are defined as shifts in either depth or breadth, whereas variations in intensity signify quantitative changes. This framework enables an evolutionary and multidimensional analysis of power asymmetry and facilitates the identification of key turning points in asymmetrical relations.

Theoretically, this study formulates key hypotheses about the impact of power asymmetry on the development of asymmetrical relationships, drawing on international relations theories. While neorealism offers clear predictions regarding asymmetrical Russia-China relations, defensive and offensive variants of realism present contrasting hypotheses, which are tested in this thesis. However, mainstream international relations theories often address complex state interactions by limiting their focus to a single dimension. To address this limitation, the thesis adopts a multi-factor equilibrium framework, which incorporates both structural analysis and area-specific expertise to generate hypotheses regarding the relationship between power asymmetry and interstate relations. Within this framework, asymmetrical interstate ties may achieve either stable or unstable, and progressive or regressive, equilibria depending on patterns

of interest convergence and divergence at global, regional, state, and individual levels. This approach permits a comprehensive and objective explanation of both continuity and change in asymmetrical relations in a multidimensional and evolutional manner.

Empirically, this thesis advances the study of asymmetry in international relations by moving beyond both the traditional small-state narrative and the dominant US-centric perspective. It also corrects common misconceptions about the extent and nature of power asymmetry between Russia and China in the post-Cold War era. For example, this study offers an objective measurement of the evolution of their power asymmetry, identifying three major qualitative shifts. The findings reveal that Western scholarship has often overstated the degree of asymmetry, as disparities in capability did not automatically translate into dependency or inequality within the Russia-China relationship. The asymmetry between the two countries remained largely superficial. According to official statistics and data from international organizations, disparities in capability were reversed in the post-September 11 period and intensified afterwards. However, these same sources indicate that Russia's dependence on China remained minimal prior to the onset of the special military operation in Ukraine. Even during the conflict, Russia's asymmetric dependence on China was limited and primarily restricted to the technological sphere. Overall, the asymmetry in Russia-China relations has been more dispositional than relational, with China possessing only the potential for influence over Moscow rather than exercising tangible or sustained leverage.

This thesis tests structural explanations for the evolution of asymmetrical Russia-China relations and finds that defensive realism provides a more persuasive account than offensive realism. In contrast to offensive realist predictions, Russia did not attempt to balance against a more powerful neighboring China. Instead, Moscow engaged with and bandwagoned alongside Beijing to counter US hegemony and restore the global balance of power, an outcome more consistent with the expectations of defensive realism. Utilizing the theory of multi-factor equilibrium, which incorporates

structural analysis and area-specific knowledge, this study demonstrates that Russia-China relations have remained stable and progressive throughout the post-Cold War era, even as the asymmetry between the two countries has widened and deepened. An analysis of the language used in key official documents across five distinct periods indicates that Russia and China have consistently sought to upgrade their strategic partnership. The principal factors underlying this stability are convergent interests in geopolitical visions, regional stability, bilateral cooperation, and regime security, all of which have outweighed sources of divergence such as differing regional agendas, constraints on bilateral cooperation, and limited humanitarian ties. Furthermore, China's policy of reassurance and self-restraint toward Russia has mitigated Moscow's security concerns. Positive experiences in bilateral cooperation, along with the continued efforts of both parties to manage and accommodate divergent interests, have further contributed to the progressive development of their asymmetrical partnership.

There is a notable correlation between qualitative changes in power asymmetry and China's strategic behavior, rather than Russia's. Following the reversal of asymmetry in the post-September 11 period, China adopted strategies of reassurance and self-restraint and further intensified these approaches as the asymmetry became wider and deeper. In contrast, Russia maintained its engagement with China despite significant qualitative shifts in their power asymmetry after the September 11 attacks and the global financial crisis. After Crimea, even though the changes in their asymmetrical relationship were primarily quantitative, Russia began to both bandwagon with and hedge against China. As asymmetry with China deepened during the Russian special military operation in Ukraine, Russia remained committed to a bandwagoning strategy with China against the collective West, while its options for diversification and hedging within the partnership became increasingly limited.

Thus, based on the case of asymmetrical Russia-China relations, several theoretical generalizations can be made. First, in great-power relations, the stronger

power tends to be more responsive to qualitative changes in power asymmetry than the weaker power. Second, asymmetrical great-power relations can be managed peacefully provided that convergent interests outweigh areas of divergence, positive experiences accumulate over the course of bilateral engagement, and both parties continue to make efforts to accommodate and address their differences.

Although the Russian special military operation in Ukraine has deepened the asymmetry in the bilateral relationship, continuity in Russia-China relations appears likely. Structural factors binding Russia and China, particularly under the backdrop of continued American global political and economic dominance, remain robust. At the regional level, stability in Central Asia is maintained through a mutually agreed division of labor. Nonetheless, the partnership still faces challenges, such as the risks associated with secondary sanctions, which require patience and the development of effective strategies for resolution.

Russia should recalibrate its expectations concerning the extent of Chinese support and recognize that Beijing will continue to act independently in pursuit of its own national interests. For its part, China should exercise continued self-restraint and seek to build its influence through consent rather than coercion. With both Putin and Xi likely to retain power in the foreseeable future, their personal relationship will remain a crucial factor in ensuring stability in Russia-China relations.

Список литературы диссертационного исследования кандидат наук Вонг Ка Хо, 2026 год

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