Структурные преобразования промышленности в контексте финансовой открытости в Китае тема диссертации и автореферата по ВАК РФ 00.00.00, кандидат наук Чжао Вейли

• Чжао Вейли
• кандидат наук
• 2023

Оглавление диссертации кандидат наук Чжао Вейли

ВВЕДЕНИЕ

1 СОДЕРЖАНИЕ И ТЕОРИЯ СТРУКТУРНЫХ ПРЕОБРАЗОВАНИЙ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОСТИ И ФИНАНСОВОЙ ОТКРЫТОСТИ

1.1 Теория структурных преобразований промышленности: традиционные и современные подходы

1.2 Экономическое содержание, сущность и теоретические аспекты финансовой открытости как ресурса структурных преобразований промышленности

1.3 Финансовая открытость как движущая сила структурных преобразований промышленности: теоретические основы

2 СВЯЗЬ МЕЖДУ ФИНАНСОВОЙ ОТКРЫТОСТЬЮ И СТРУКТУРНЫМИ ПРЕОБРАЗОВАНИЯМИ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОСТИ

2.1 Теоретический анализ связи между финансовой открытостью и структурными преобразованиями промышленности

2.2 Исторический анализ взаимосвязи финансовой открытости со структурными преобразованиями промышленности

2.3 Эмпирический анализ взаимосвязи финансовой открытости и структурных преобразований промышленности

3 РОЛЬ ФИНАНСОВОЙ ОТКРЫТОСТИ В ПРЕОБРАЗОВАНИИ СТРУКТУРЫ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОСТИ КИТАЯ

3.1 Современные проблемы и диспропорции структуры промышленности китайской экономики

3.2 Уровень и динамика финансовой открытости в Китае

3.3 Совместная эволюция финансовой открытости и структурных преобразований промышленности Китая

ЗАКЛЮЧЕНИЕ

СПИСОК ИСПОЛЬЗОВАННЫХ ИСТОЧНИКОВ

Введение диссертации (часть автореферата) на тему «Структурные преобразования промышленности в контексте финансовой открытости в Китае»

ВВЕДЕНИЕ

Актуальность темы исследования. Актуальность темы исследования обусловлена современными глобальными геоэкономическими изменениями, требующими пересмотра традиционных подходов к анализу и оценке эффективности структуры промышленности, а также обоснования взвешенных решений по оптимизации ресурсного обеспечения промышленного развития отдельных стран. Системная интеграция национальных экономик в международное разделение труда и в цепочки перераспределения факторных ресурсов демонстрирует накопление значительных рисков, обусловленных сформированными в отдельных регионах принципиальными несоответствиями структуры промышленности ресурсным возможностям и потребностям, которые в условиях рисков разрыва налаженных связей и усиления геополитических разногласий становятся мощным дестабилизирующим фактором, потенциальным источником экономических кризисов и потрясений.

Китай представляет наиболее яркий пример последствий ускоренного экономического развития, поддержанного политикой открытости международным рынкам финансовых ресурсов и технологий в формате беспрецедентно быстрого и масштабного включения в глобальные цепочки создания стоимости. Возможности дальнейшего сбалансированного экономического развития страны ограничиваются структурными изменениями промышленности, вызванными не столько национальными экономическими интересами и потребностями суверенного развития, сколько международным соотношением спроса и предложения ресурсных факторов (труда, капитала) и приоритетами экономико-политических решений экспортирующих и импортирующих их стран.

Поэтому в настоящее время для Китая и многих развивающихся стран приобретают значимость исследования о том, как национальным экономикам, используя преимущества международного капитала как фактора ресурсного

обеспечения промышленного развития, снизить финансовые риски и

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способствовать структурным преобразованиям промышленности, адекватным национальным целям устойчивого промышленного и в целом экономического развития. Этим актуализируются задачи разработки и применения современного инструментария анализа влияния финансовой открытости на структурные изменения промышленности, учитывающего многоаспектность современной геоэкономической ситуации.

Степень разработанности проблемы. В условиях масштабных и многоаспектных трансформаций экономического миропорядка, в координатах которых находятся как развитые, так и развивающиеся страны, наибольшую актуальность приобретают исследования ученых, посвященные проблемам индустриальных изменений, что определяется базовой и системообразующей ролью промышленности в национальных экономиках. При этом основное место в рамках теоретико-концептуального базиса исследования проблемы структурных преобразований промышленного сектора стран занимают вопросы ресурсного обеспечения (в том числе финансового) происходящих в данной сфере изменений в соответствии с общенациональными целями развития и спецификой ресурсного потенциала стран. В Китае одним из главных ресурсных факторов промышленных трансформаций выступает финансовая открытость, эволюция которой в различных аспектах хорошо прослеживается в публикациях большого числа ученых разных стран.

В более ранних источниках рассматривается влияние открытости финансовых рынков на экономический (в том числе промышленный) рост. Ученые в основном рассматривают эту проблему с точки зрения экономики развития; сформированы три различные позиции. Одни авторы пишут о положительной связи между открытостью финансовых рынков и экономическим ростом, подтверждением чему являются работы С. Асонгу, Б. Балтаги, Н. Жанга, С. М. Циаэй, Х. Хуанга и Ц. Ху. Противоположную позицию занимают другие авторы, которые подчеркивают, что финансовая

открытость неразрывно связана с финансовой нестабильностью, которая

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может нанести вред финансовому развитию и экономическому росту. Это отражено в работах М. Батуо, К. Мойо и Пьера Ле Ру. Некоторые ученые утверждают, что связь между финансовой открытостью, экономическим ростом и структурными преобразованиями промышленности носит относительный характер, о чем свидетельствуют работы Ф. Агьона, С. Бойкоса, К. Д. Джейсона, А. Кришнамурти, П.П. Мукхерже, Л. Рощиной, Л. Элькуйзена.

При этом большинству ученых очевидно, что общий объем выпуска продукции может отражать экономический рост, в то время как внутреннее содержание, характеристики выпускаемой продукции отражают структуру промышленности. Так, И. Линь указывает, что долгосрочное экономическое развитие основывается на характере структуры промышленности. Согласно теории новой структурной экономики, влияние финансовой открытости и финансового развития на экономический рост напрямую сопряжено с тем, соответствует ли степень финансовой открытости и финансового развития отечественной промышленной структуре.

В предыдущих работах в качестве базы для исследования связи между финансовой открытостью, финансовым развитием и экономическим, а также промышленным, ростом ученые обычно анализировали разные страны в разные периоды времени. А поскольку разные страны в разные периоды времени имеют разную структуру промышленности, исследователи приходили к разным выводам. Именно поэтому в представленных выше публикациях были сформированы столь различающиеся научные позиции и взгляды на взаимосвязь структурных преобразований промышленности и ключевого фактора данных изменений - финансовой открытости стран.

В соответствии с этим в последние годы акцент в научной литературе в данной области сместился с анализа связи между финансовой открытостью и экономическим ростом на: изучение движущих сил структурных преобразований промышленности, в том числе цифровых технологий и инноваций в процессе индустриального развития; исследование

пространственно-временных аспектов индустриальных изменений; анализ

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модернизации промышленности как процесса технологических и институциональных изменений в национальной экономике, обеспечивающего ее глобальную конкурентоспособность. Этим вопросам посвящены работы большого числа ученых: Е.Г. Анимицы, Л.Б. Вардомского, Ю.А. Дорошенко, Ю.С. Залетова, А.Н. Захарова, А.Э. Калининой, В.В. Климука, Л.Г. Матвеевой, А.Ю. Никитаевой, Н.В. Новиковой, Н.Я. Петракова, Ю. В. Развадовской, И.В. Соминой, О.С. Сухарева, О.А. Черновой, И.К. Шевченко, и многих других. В их трудах исследуются различные факторы промышленного развития и структурных преобразований в индустриальной сфере, в том числе, в контексте циркулярной и зеленой экономики, экосистемного подхода, технологической модернизации. В то же время в перечисленных публикациях не рассматривается финансовая открытость как источник ресурсной базы промышленного развития и структурных преобразований этой сферы.

Отдельные работы, в частности, Х. Бао, Х. Ванга, М. Джиянга, Н. Жанга, Ф. Цзоу, С. Чена, рассматривают взаимосвязи между финансовой открытостью, финансовым развитием и структурой промышленности. Однако их результаты, основанные преимущественно на оценках связей двух переменных (показателя финансовой открытости и структурных изменений промышленности), скорее всего, остаются неполными или даже ошибочными, поскольку игнорируют механизм взаимовлияния данных факторов.

В целом результаты анализа литературы по изучаемой проблематике показывают, что до сих пор не проведены исследования механизма влияния финансовой открытости как фактора-ресурса преобразований на структуру промышленности через призму финансового развития страны. Это послужило побудительным мотивом для проведения настоящего исследования.

Цель и задачи исследования. Цель данного исследования - на основе развития теоретико-методологической базы анализа динамики структурных изменений в промышленности сформировать концепцию, разработать и апробировать прикладную методику оценки влияния финансовой открытости

на структурные преобразования промышленности в Китае.

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В рамках сформулированной цели в ходе исследования поставлены и решены следующие исследовательские задачи:

- сформировать понятийно-терминологический аппарат диссертационного исследования на основе обобщения современных положений теории структурных преобразований промышленности и финансовой открытости;

- изучить связь между финансовой открытостью как источником формирования ресурсной базы промышленного развития и структурными преобразованиями промышленности;

- исследовать опосредующую роль финансового развития, характеризующегося совокупностью инструментов ресурсного обеспечения экономики, в передаче импульса влияния финансовой открытости на структурные преобразования промышленности;

- определить характеристики структурных преобразований промышленности в Китае, соответствующие интересам долгосрочного экономического роста в контексте конкретной экономической ситуации;

- разработать и апробировать на эмпирических данных, характеризующих динамику развития китайской экономики, инструментарно-методический аппарат измерения уровня и динамики финансовой открытости, характера и степени ее воздействия на структуру промышленности страны.

Объект и предмет исследования. Объект исследования -структурные преобразования промышленности и уровень финансовой открытости китайской экономики как фактор ресурсного обеспечения промышленного развития.

Предмет исследования - экономические условия, методы, модели и инструменты анализа связи финансовой открытости и структурных преобразований в промышленности Китая.

Диссертационное исследование выполнено в рамках паспорта специальности 5.2.3. Региональная и отраслевая экономика: экономика

промышленности: пп. 2.3. Ресурсная база промышленного развития; 2.15. Структурные изменения в промышленности и управление ими.

Рабочая гипотеза исследования базируется на предположении о том, что достижение целевых показателей структурных преобразований промышленного сектора китайской экономики на основе инноваций, определяемых приоритетами ускоренного экономического развития (политика открытости международным рынкам финансовых ресурсов и технологий, включенность в глобальные цепочки создания стоимости, сбалансированность экономического развития, укрепление экономического суверенитета), может быть обеспечено за счет использования потенциала финансовой открытости как ресурса индустриальных изменений. При этом финансовая открытость как специфический ресурсный фактор оказывает как прямое, так и косвенное воздействие на промышленную структуру, а при определенной структуре промышленности существует соответствующая ей оптимальная финансовая открытость. Решающее значение для достижения целей структурных преобразований имеет степень финансовой открытости экономики.

Теоретико-методологическая основа исследования сформирована на базе фундаментальных положений концепций и теорий промышленного развития, в том числе структурных преобразований, индустриализации, реиндустриализации и новой индустриализации, теории модернизации на основе инноваций, эволюционной теории, теории структурной динамики, а также ресурсной концепции. Поскольку данное исследование посвящено вопросам структурных преобразований промышленности в контексте долгосрочного экономического развития, оно проводится в парадигме экономики развития. Первое поколение экономики развития - структурализм. Второе поколение экономики развития - неолиберализм. Несмотря на то, что большинство развивающихся стран действовали в рамках двух вышеуказанных концепций экономики развития, они не смогли достичь

индустриализации и экономического роста. В качестве ответа на эти неудачи

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новой концепцией третьего поколения экономики развития становится новая структурная экономика (НСЭ). Согласно НСЭ, долгосрочный устойчивый экономический рост - это процесс структурных преобразований промышленности. Однако плавный и гибкий процесс структурных преобразований промышленности требует одновременного совершенствования надстройки. Если структура промышленности соответствует надстройке, транзакционные издержки могут быть снижены, что может привести к позитивным структурным преобразованиям промышленности. Поэтому, чтобы способствовать структурным преобразованиям промышленности, обеспечивающие их ресурсную базу финансовая открытость и финансовое развитие (надстройка) своими уровнями должны соответствовать имеющейся структуре промышленности.

Инструментально-методический аппарат исследования. Для обоснования аргументов в диссертационном исследовании применялись методы классификации, группировки и синтеза, метод научной абстракции, а также методы логического и сравнительного анализа. Для визуализации результатов исследования использовались графические методы. Кроме того, для доказательства гипотезы и решения задач диссертационного исследования применялись методы дескриптивной статистики, корреляционно-регрессионного анализа и методы математического моделирования. В качестве инструмента для обработки и анализа данных в диссертационном исследовании использовалось программное обеспечение Stata и SPSS.

Информационно-эмпирическая база исследования сформирована на основе использования панельных данных о состоянии экономики и промышленности 36 развитых стран1 и 34 развивающихся стран2 в период с

1 Развитые страны: Канада, США, Великобритания, Австралия, Австрия, Бельгия, Дания, Швеция, Финляндия, Франция, Германия, Греция, Ирландия, Италия, Люксембург, Нидерланды, Португалия, Сингапур, Испания, Кипр, Эстония, Венгрия, Латвия, Литва, Мальта, Польша, Румыния, Словения, Исландия, Норвегия, Швейцария, Япония, Новая Зеландия, Корея, Чехия, Израиль.

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Развивающиеся страны: КНР, Чили, РФ, Перу, Бразилия, ЮАР, Индия, Индонезия, Таиланд, Филиппины, Малайзия, Вьетнам, Египет, Турция, Иран, Пакистан, Аргентина, Кения, Мексика, Ямайка, Колумбия, Иордания, Бангладеш, Марокко, Алжир, Ангола, Эквадор, Хорватия, Тунис, Шри-Ланка, Маврикий, Нигерия, Камерун, ОАЭ.

2000 г. до 2019 г., содержащихся в отчетах по индикаторам мирового развития С^01), базах данных глобального финансового развития (ОБО) и базах данных КОБ Швейцарского экономического института; данных Годового отчёта о соглашениях по обмену валюты и валютных ограничениях, издаваемого МВФ; данных официальных структур Китайской народной республики (статистический ежегодник КНР за 1982-2020 гг., отчет о событиях реформы и политики открытости Китая: 1978-2008 гг., Китайский финансовый ежегодник, отчет об использовании Китаем иностранного капитала за последние 30 лет и др.); данных годового отчёта Государственной валютной администрации КНР.

Научная новизна диссертационного исследования состоит в разработке и апробации методики оценки влияния финансовой открытости как ключевого фактора ресурсного обеспечения трансформационных преобразований в индустриальной сфере, позволившей обосновать и оценить степень влияния финансовой открытости на структурные изменения в промышленности КНР. Это отличается от методов и выводов других исследователей об однозначном характере и последствиях влияния финансовой открытости на промышленное развитие.

Наиболее существенные результаты исследования, обладающие научной новизной и полученные лично автором, отражены в следующих положениях:

1. Теоретически и эмпирически обоснована взаимосвязь структурных преобразований в промышленности и ресурсного потенциала финансовой открытости страны, включая не только прямое, но и опосредованное влияние финансовой открытости на структуру промышленности, и доказано, что в каждый конкретный момент времени оптимальная финансовая открытость страны определяется существующей структурой промышленности.

2. На сопоставлении исторических данных мировых финансовых кризисов доказано, что финансовая открытость как источник формирования

ресурсной базы промышленного развития должна соответствовать

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существующей национальной структуре промышленности и целям ее развития в стратегическом аспекте, не являясь при этом, однако, единственным необходимым и достаточным условием для структурных преобразований промышленности и долгосрочного экономического роста в составе всей совокупности факторов развития.

3. Эмпирически доказан различный характер и механизм влияния финансовой открытости на структуру промышленности, вектор и масштабы ее преобразований в развитых и развивающихся странах. Обосновано, что, в то время как в развитых странах наблюдается тенденция «реиндустриализации», в развивающихся странах выявлена тенденция «преждевременной деиндустриализации». Выявлено, что влияние финансовой открытости на структуру промышленности проявляется через механизм ресурсного обеспечения промышленного развития, представленного рынками собственного капитала, заемного капитала и валют. При этом показано, что в развитых странах усиление рынка собственного капитала ведет к реиндустриализации, а заёмный капитал и валютный рынок способствуют деиндустриализации; в развивающихся странах рынок капитала и заёмный капитал ведут к деиндустриализации, а валютный рынок способствует индустриализации.

4. С использованием разработанного аналитического инструментария выявлены последствия структурных изменений в промышленности; показано, что в интересах долгосрочного экономического роста в каждый момент времени указанные преобразования должны быть направлены на максимизацию общественной производительности и достижение равновесия между производственным сектором и сектором сферы услуг; обоснована недопустимость как избыточной индустриализации, так и избыточной деиндустриализации, что согласуется с идеей сервисификации промышленности, согласно которой она выполняет двоякую функцию: производство средств производства для индустриальной сферы и сферы услуг.

5. Разработан универсальный инструментарно-методический аппарат

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количественной оценки уровня финансовой открытости с введением субкатегориальных показателей, применение которого позволило с использованием эмпирических данных по КНР рассчитать значение данного уровня; сформирован механизм влияния финансовой открытости на структуру промышленности страны, в качестве одного из инструментов которого предложена функция Кобба-Дугласа, модифицированная автором за счет введения в нее показателя «способ производства», отражающего одновременно масштаб промышленности, структуру занятости и экономическое развитие.

Теоретическая значимость. В отличие от большинства предыдущих исследований структурных преобразований в промышленности и финансовой открытости, реализованных в парадигме неолиберализма, данное исследование основано на парадигме новой структурной экономики. Имеющиеся исследования структурных изменений в промышленности проводятся, в основном, с точки зрения транснациональных компаний; в данном исследовании структурные преобразования промышленности анализируются с точки зрения национальной стратегии Китая. Механизм влияния финансовой открытости на структурные изменения в промышленности впервые рассмотрен сквозь призму финансового развития как элемента ресурсной базы промышленности, что проясняет связь между финансовой открытостью, финансовым развитием и структурными изменениями в промышленности.

Практическая значимость. Практическая значимость данного исследования заключается в его значительном вкладе в регулирование отраслевой структуры промышленности национальной экономики Китая. Универсальность практически значимых выводов исследования для других стран состоит в следующем: на фоне пандемии и других кризисных явлений изменение денежно-кредитной политики развитых экономик приводит к увеличению трансграничных потоков капитала, что ведет к росту рисков для

международных финансовых рынков и перераспределению глобальной

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цепочки создания стоимости. Финансовая открытость, финансовое развитие и внутренняя промышленная реструктуризация тесно взаимосвязаны. Очень важно понимать характер связей между ними в условиях нестабильности международной финансовой среды для обоснованного принятия решений по регулированию структурных преобразований индустриального сектора экономик как развитых, так и развивающихся стран.

Достоверность и апробация результатов исследования. Достоверность и апробация результатов исследования достигаются посредством концептуальной логики исследования, выдержанной в соответствии с основными положениями экономической науки и теорий промышленного развития. Результаты, полученные в рамках диссертационного исследования, апробированы на научно-практических конференциях международного и всероссийского уровней в городах Ростов-на-Дону (International conference "Management in financial economy"; Международная конференция «Тенденции развития транспортно-логистического комплекса в условиях цифровой трансформации», IX международная научно-практическая онлайн конференция «Цифровая экосистема экономики»), Санкт-Петербург (ICEST-II 2021: "Economic and Social Trends for Sustainability of Modern Society") с опубликованием материалов в сборниках научных трудов, журналах, монографиях.

Публикации результатов исследования. Основные результаты исследования отражены в 13 научных публикациях, в том числе 2 статьи индексируются в базе данных Scopus, 3 статьи опубликованы в журналах, входящих в Перечень научных изданий ЮФУ, общим объемом 15,11 п.л., в том числе лично авторский вклад составляет 10,83 п.л.

Структура и объем диссертации. Работа состоит из введения, трех глав (каждая из которых состоит из 3 параграфов), заключения, списка литературы, состоящего из 169 наименований. Диссертация иллюстрирована 23 рисунками и 19 таблицами. Работа изложена на 213 страницах.

1 СОДЕРЖАНИЕ И ТЕОРИЯ СТРУКТУРНЫХ ПРЕОБРАЗОВАНИЙ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОСТИ И ФИНАНСОВОЙ ОТКРЫТОСТИ 1.1 Теория структурных преобразований промышленности: традиционные и современные подходы

«Промышленность» означает определённую совокупность предприятий, организаций и ведомств; при этом существуют разные способы выделения отраслей промышленности в соответствии с разными стандартами создания совокупности. «Структура» означает организацию различных компонентов целого. Структура промышленности, также известная как секторальная структура национальной экономики, описывает структуру экономической деятельности страны, производство продуктов материального обеспечения человека.

Структура промышленности означает ведомственную структуру общественного производства; она формируется и развивается на основе разделения труда. При изучении структуры промышленности учёные в основном исследуют взаимоотношения между средствами производства и между различными отраслями экономики, такими, как сельское хозяйство, лёгкая промышленность, тяжёлая промышленность, строительная индустрия, сфера коммерческих услуг и другие отрасли.

Экономическая теория индустриализации - это основа теории традиционных структурных преобразований промышленности. Экономическая теория индустриализации - наиболее известная классическая теория, объясняющая изменения на разных стадиях экономического развития. Изначально, в соответствии с реальностями Англии, Уильям Петти в 1691 г. отметил, что промышленность часто является более высокодоходной, чем сельское хозяйство, а торговля - более высокодоходной, чем промышленность3. Идея Уильяма Петти состоит в том, чтобы объяснить развитие промышленности её более высокой доходностью по сравнению с

3 Brewer A. The Concept of An Agricultural Surplus, From Petty To Smith/Journal of The History of Economic Thought. 2011.Vol. 33. No. 4. P. 487-505.

доходностью сельского хозяйства. Кларк обогатил результаты исследования Петти. Он принял идею Петти для анализа структуры занятости4.

Проводя эмпирический сопоставительный анализ размещения производительных сил в промышленном, сельскохозяйственном секторах и в секторе торговли, базируясь на разнице уровней дохода, Кларк отметил, что рабочая сила сначала перетекает из сельского хозяйства в промышленность, а в итоге, при условии экономического развития и возрастания национального дохода, концентрируется в секторе услуг. Эта идея Петти-Кларка получила дальнейшее развитие в работах Саймона Кузнеца. Саймон Кузнец применил её в области оценки национального дохода.

Собранные данные о структуре промышленности в 13 странах дали автору возможность отметить, что при экономическом развитии доля сельского хозяйства в общем выпуске продукции непрерывно снижается, в то время как доля промышленности постепенно возрастает. Также было отмечено, что доля выпуска услуг в период экономического развития остаётся устойчивой5.

Таким образом, можно сделать вывод о том, что в классических исследованиях структурные преобразования промышленности относятся к перераспределению факторов производства либо к распределению конечного продукта между сельским хозяйством, промышленностью и сектором услуг6.

В целом, в академических исследованиях в рамках традиционной теории структурных преобразований промышленности их суть включает следующие аспекты:

Список литературы диссертационного исследования кандидат наук Чжао Вейли, 2023 год

СПИСОК ИСПОЛЬЗОВАННЫХ ИСТОЧНИКОВ

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старопромышленного региона России: кейс Свердловской области / Е. Г. Анимица, Н. В. Новикова // Journal of New Economy. - 2022. - Т. 23, №2 2. -С. 64-79. - DOI 10.29141/2658-5081-2022-23-2-4.

2. Вардомский, Л. Б. Торговые связи с КНР и экономическое развитие российских регионов / Л. Б. Вардомский // Проблемы Дальнего Востока. -2018. - № 6. - С. 65-76. - DOI 10.31857/S013128120002689-8.

3. Дорошенко, Ю А. Стратегирование инновационно ориентированного бизнеса: проблемы и перспективы в условиях неоиндустриальных вызовов / Ю. А. Дорошенко, И. О. Малыхина // Экономика. Общество. Человек : материалы национальной научно-практической конференции с международным участием, Белгород, 26-27 июня 2020 года. Том 1. Выпуск XXXIX. - Белгород: Белгородский государственный технологический университет им. В.Г. Шухова, 2020. - С. 76-80.

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Л. Г. Матвеева, Е. В. Каплюк, Н. В. Низов // Вестник Академии знаний. -2021. - № 45(4). - С. 184-191. - 001 10.24412/2304-6139-2021-11355.

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10. Новикова, Н. В. Новая индустриализация Уральского макрорегиона в условиях цифровизации экономики / Н. В. Новикова // Новая индустриализация России: экономика - наука - человек -природопользование : сборник научных трудов VII Уральских научных чтений профессоров и докторантов, Екатеринбург, 04-05 февраля 2020 года. - Екатеринбург: Уральский государственный экономический университет, 2020. - С. 49-54.

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MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND SCIENCE OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION

SOUTHERN FEDERAL UNIVERSITY

On the rights of the manuscript

ZHAO WEILI

INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURAL UPGRADING IN THE CONTEXT OF FINANCIAL OPENING IN CHINA

Specialty 5.2.3. Regional and sectoral economy: industrial economics

THESIS

FOR THE ACADEMIC DEGREE OF A CANDIDATE OF ECONOMICS

Scientific advisor: Cand. of Sc. (Economics), Assoc. Prof.

D.A. Shevchenko

Rostov-on-Don - 2023

CONTENT

INTRODUCTION............................................................... 3

1 CONTENT AND THEORY OF INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURAL UPGRADING AND FINANCIAL OPENING............................ 13

1.1 Industrial structural upgrading theory: traditional and contemporary approaches......................................................................... 13

1.2 Economic content, essence and theoretical aspects of financial opening as a resource for industrial structure upgrading..................... 24

1.3 Financial openness as a driver of industrial structural upgrading: theoretical foundations......................................................... 37

2 THE LINKAGE BETWEEN FINANCIAL OPENING AND INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURAL CHANGE................................. 51

2.1 Theoretical analysis of the linkage between financial opening and industrial structure upgrading.................................................. 51

2.2 Historical analysis of the linkage between industrial structure upgrading and financial opening.............................................. 63

2.3 Empirical analysis of the linkage between industrial structure upgrading and financial opening................................................ 76

3 THE ROLE OF FINANCIAL OPENING IN CHINA'S

INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE UPGRADING.............................. 102

3.1 Current issues and disproportions in the industrial structure of the Chinese economy................................................................ 102

3.2 The level and dynamics of financial openness in China............. 130

3.3 Co-evolution of the dynamics of financial opening and industrial

structure upgrading in China..................................................... 147

CONCLUSION................................................................... 170

LIST OF REFERENCES....................................................... 174

INTRODUCTION Relevance of research topics. The urgency of the research project stems from the current global geo-economic changes, which require revising the traditional methods of analyzing and evaluating the performance of industrial structure and optimizing the rationality of the balanced decision-making of industrial development resources supply in individual countries. The systematic integration of the national economy in the chain of international division of labor and redistribution of factor resources shows the accumulation of significant risks. Because of the fundamental gaps between industrial structure and resource capacity and demand in various regions, these gaps have become a powerful destabilizing factor and a potential source of economic crisis and shocks under the risk of rupture of links and intensification of geopolitical division.

China's integration into global value chains at an unprecedented speed and scale, supported by the policy of financial opening and technology to the international market, is the most obvious example of the impact of accelerated economic development. The possibility for a country to further balance its economic development is limited by changes in its industrial structure resulting not so much from national economic interests and sovereign development needs as from international supply and demand for resource elements (labour, capital) and the economic and political priorities of exporting and importing countries.

Therefore, it is of great significance for China and many developing countries to study how to use international capital as the resource endowment of industrial development, reduce financial risks and promote the transformation of industrial structure in line with the national sustainable industrial and overall economic development goals. This includes the development and application of modern tools to analyse the impact of financial opening on changes in industrial structure, taking into account the multidimensional nature of the current geo-economic situation.

The degree of elaboration of the problem. Under the background of large-scale and multi-level changes in the world economic order, both developed and

emerging countries are in a common coordinate. Research on industrial transformations is of great urgency for scholar, due to industry's foundational and structural importance to the nation's economy. In the mean time, within the framework of the theoretical and conceptual foundations for the study of structural transformation of the national industrial sector, the topic of the availability of resources (including finance) in this area, are quite often debated by scholars in the light of national development objectives and the specific circumstances of the country's resource potential. In China, one of the main resource factors of industrial transformation is financial opening. In the papers of a large number of scholars from different countries, the evolution of financial opening in all aspects is well reflected.

Early literatures explored the impact of financial opening on economic (including industrial transformation) growth. Scholars mainly look at this problem from the perspective of development economics. Three different positions have been formed. Some authors contend the positive relationship between financial market openness and economic growth (industrial transformation), confirmed by the works of S. Asongu, B. Baltagi, C. Hu, H. Huang, S. M. Qiaei and N. Zhang. The opposite position is taken by other authors who emphasize that financial opening is inextricably linked with financial volatility. As a result, it can cause damage to the development of domestic financial system and economic growth (industrial transformation). This argument is substantiated by the research of M. Batuo, Clément Moyo and Pierre Le Roux. In academia, there are also a strand of point of view that the effect of financial opening on economic growth and industrial transformation is conditional on other influential factors, as evidenced by the works of F. Agyon, S.A. Asongu, S. Boykos, L. Elkuizen, C.D. Jason, A. Krishnamurti, P.P. Mukherjee, L.N. Roshchina.

In this case, most scholars know very well that the total output can reflect economic growth, while the internal content and characteristics of output reflect industrial structure. Therefore, Yifu Lin pointed out that the long-term economic

development is based on the nature of industrial structure. According to the New Structural Economics theory, the impact of financial opening and financial development on economic growth is directly related to whether the degree of financial opening and financial development matches the domestic industrial structure.

In previous works, as the basis of studying the relationship between financial opening, financial development, economic growth, scholars usually analyze different countries in different periods. Netherless, because different countries in different periods have different industrial structures, researchers have come to different conclusions. This is why the above-mentioned researches have formed such different academic positions and perspectives on the relationship between economic growth and financial opening, as a resource factor of industrial development.

In line with this, in recent years, the focus of academic literature in this field has shifted from analyzing the relationship between financial opening and economic growth to studying the driving forces of industrial structure transformation, including digital technology and innovation in the process of industrial development, name is, the temporal and spatial dimensions of industrial transformation. In existing works, industrial upgrading is analyzed as the process of technological and institutional changes for the national economy to ensure its global competitiveness. Many scientists' work is devoted to these issues: E.G. Animitsa, O.A. Chernova, Yu.A. Doroshenko, V.V. Klimuk, L.G. Matveeva, A.Yu. Nikitayeva, N.V. Novykova, N.Ya. Petrakov, Yu.V. Razadovskaya, I.K. Shevchenko, I.V. Somina, O.S. Sukharev, Yu.S. Zaletov, L.B. Valdomski, A.N. Zacharov and many others. Their work explores various factors of industrial development and structural transformation in the industrial structure, including circular and green economies, ecosystem approaches and technological modernization. However, all their works do not consider financial liberalization as a resource factor for industrial development and structural transformation.

H. Bao, S. Chen, M. Jiyang, H. Wang, N. Zhang, F. Zou, and other scholars have studied the relationship among financial opening, financial development, and industrial structure. However, their results, which are based primarily on estimates of the links between two variables (financial opening and industrial structure upgrading), are likely to remain incomplete or even wrong, as they ignore the analysis of influence mechanism.

Generally speaking, the literature analysis shows that the influence mechanism of financial opening as a resource factor of financial development and industrial development has not been fully studied, which is the motivation of this study.

The purpose and objectives of the study. The purpose of this study is to develop a concept based on the theory and method of dynamic analysis of industrial structure change, and to develop and test the application method of evaluating the impact of financial opening on China's industrial structure transformation.

Within this purpose, the study identified and achieved the following research

goals:

- to form the concept and terminology tools of research on the basis of summarizing the modern proposition of industrial structure transformation and financial opening theory;

- to explore the relationship between financial opening as the source of the formation of industrial development resource base and industrial structure upgrading;

- to study the intermediary role of financial development characterized by the collection of economic resource supply tools in transmitting the impact of financial opening on industrial structure transformation;

- to determine the characteristics of China's industrial structure transformation in line with the achieving of long-term economic growth under the specific economic situation;

- to develop and test on empirical data of China's economic development

dynamics the tools and methods for measuring the level and dynamics of

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financial opening and the nature and degree of its impact on the country's

industrial structure.

Object and subject of the research. The research object is the industrial structure transformation and financial opening level of China's economy, which is the resource element of industrial development.

The subject of this study is the economic conditions, methods, models and tools for analyzing the relationship between China's financial opening and industrial structure transformation.

The research of this paper is completed within the framework of professional data table 5.2. 3. Regional and Sectoral Economy: Industrial Economics: P. 2.3. Resource base for industrial development; 2.15. Industrial restructuring and management.

Research hypothesis is based on the following assumptions: to achieve the goal of industrial innovation-driven structural transformation of China's economy, the priorities of accelerating economic development (opening policies to international financial and technology markets, integrating into global value chains, balancing economic development and strengthening economic sovereignty) can be achieved by utilizing the potential of financial opening as a resource for industrial transformation. In this process, financial opening, as a specific resource element, has both direct and indirect effects on industrial structure. Under a certain industrial structure, there is an optimal financial opening corresponding to it. The degree of financial openness of economies is very important to achieve the goal of structural transformation.

The theoretical and methodological basis of the research is based on the concept and theory of industrial development, including structural transformation, industrialization, re-industrialization and new industrialization, innovation-driven modernization theory, evolution theory, structural dynamics theory and resource concept. Because this study focuses on the transformation of industrial structure under the background of long-term economic development, it is carried out under the

paradigm of development economics. The first generation of development economics was structuralism. The second generation of development economics is neoliberalism. Although most developing countries operate within the framework of the two development economics concepts mentioned above they have not been able to achieve industrialization and economic growth. In response to these failures, New Structure Economics (NSE) is becoming the new concept of the third generation of development economics.

According to the New Structure Economics, long-term sustainable economic growth is a process of industrial restructuring. However, the smooth and flexible process of industrial structure transformation needs the synchronous improvement of superstructure. If the industrial structure matches the superstructure, the transaction cost can be reduced, so that the positive industrial structure transformation can be realized. Therefore, in order to promote the transformation of industrial structure and provide its resource base, the level (superstructure) of financial opening and financial development must match the existing industrial structure.

Instrumental and methodological apparatus. The thesis uses the methods of classification, grouping and synthesis, scientific abstraction, logic and comparative analysis to justify the arguments. The research results are visualized by graphic method. In addition, descriptive statistics, correlation regression analysis and mathematical modeling methods are used to prove the hypothesis, which solves the problems studied in this paper. In this paper, STATA and SPSS software are used as data processing and analysis tools.

The research information base. The information and empirical basis for the study was formed using panel data from 70 major national economies, including their industrial sectors, between 2000 and 2019, including data of 36 developed countries1 and 34 developing countries2, from World Development

1 Developed countries: Canada, USA, UK, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, Czech Republic, Israel.

2 Developing countries: China, Chile, Russian Federation, Peru, Brazil, South Africa, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, Argentina, Kenya, Mexico, Jamaica, Colombia,

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Indicators Report, Global Financial Development Database and Swiss Economic Research Institute KOF Database; Data on the Annual report on currency exchange arrangements and foreign exchange restrictions issued by IMF; data of official institutions of the People's Republic of China (Statistical Yearbook of the People's Republic of China 1982-2020, Development Report of China's Reform and Opening-up Policy: 1978-2008, China Financial Yearbook, Report on China's Utilization of Foreign Capital) in the past 30 years, etc.); Annual report of the China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

Scientific novelty of the research results. The scientific innovation of this study is in developing and testing a method to evaluate the impact of financial opening as a key resource supply factor in industrial transformation, which can prove and evaluate the impact of financial opening on China's industrial structure change. This is different from other researchers' methods and conclusions on the single nature and consequences of the impact of financial openness on industrial development.

The most important scientific innovations obtained by the author are reflected in the following clauses:

1. Theoretically and empirically, this paper demonstrates the relationship between industrial structure transformation and financial opening resource endowment of a country, including not only the direct impact of financial opening on industrial structure, but also the indirect impact of financial opening on industrial structure. It proves that the optimal financial opening of a country is determined by the existing industrial structure at each specific time point.

2. The comparison of historical data of global financial crises proves that financial opening, as the source of forming the resource base of industrial development, must be strategically consistent with the existing national industrial structure and its development goals, but it is not the only necessary and sufficient condition for industrial structure transformation and long-term economic growth,

Jordan, Bangladesh, Morocco, Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Croatia, Tunisia, Sri Lanka, Mauritius, Nigeria, Cameroon, United Arab Emirates.

but a part of the whole development factor.

3. It is proved on empirical data that the financial opening in developed countries and developing countries has different nature and influence mechanism on industrial structure, carrier and transformation scale. It is reasonable to think that the trend of "re-industrialization" in developed countries is accompanied by the trend of "premature deindustrialization" in developing countries. It reveals that the influence of financial opening on industrial structure is manifested through the resource supply mechanism of industrial development represented by capital, credit and currency market. At the same time, it shows that in developed countries, the strengthening of capital market leads to re-industrialization, while credit market and currency market promote de-industrialization; in developing countries, capital markets and credit market lead to deindustrialization, while currency markets promote industrialization.

4. Using the developed by author analysis tools, the influence of industrial structure change is determined. It shows that in order to achieve long-term economic growth at all times, these changes must be aimed at maximizing social productivity and striking a balance between the manufacturing and service sectors; Neither excessive industrialization nor excessive de-industrialization is allowed, which is consistent with the idea of service-oriented industry, that is, service-oriented industry has dual functions of producing capital goods for manufacturing sector and capital goods for service sector.

5. A general tool and method tool is developed to quantify the level of financial openness and introduce sub-category indicators. Using this tool and method tool, the value of this level can be calculated by using China's empirical data; The influence mechanism of financial opening on a country's industrial structure is formed, and Cobb-Douglas function is put forward as one of the tools. The author revises it by introducing the index of "production mode", which reflects the industrial scale, employment structure and economic development at the same time.

The theoretical significance of the work. Different from most previous studies on industrial structure transformation and financial opening under the

neoliberalism paradigm, this study is based on the New Structural Economics paradigm. The existing research on the change of industrial structure is mainly carried out from the perspective of multinational corporations. This study analyzes the transformation of industrial structure from the perspective of China's national strategy. For the first time, from the perspective of financial development as the basic element of industrial resources, this paper investigates the influence mechanism of financial opening on the change of industrial structure, and clarifies the relationship among financial opening, financial development, and the change of industrial structure.

Practical significance of the work. The practical significance of this study lies in its great contribution to the adjustment of industrial structure of China's national economy. The universality of the practical important conclusions of this study to other countries is as follows: In the context of pandemic and other crisis events, changes in monetary policy in developed economies have led to an increase in cross-border capital flows, resulting in an increase in risks of international financial markets and redistribution of global value chains. Financial opening and financial development are closely related to the adjustment of domestic industrial structure. In the context of an unstable international financial environment, it is important to understand their linkages in order to make informed decisions on restructuring the industrial sectors of the economies of both developed and developing countries.

Reliability and approbation of the research results. The validity and approbation of the research results are realized through the conceptual logic of research based on the basic propositions of economic science and industrial development theory. The results of the research were tested at international and all-Russian conferences on science and practice held in Rostov-on-Don (International Conference on "Management in financial economy"; International Conference on "Development Trends of Transport and Logistics Complex in the Context of Digital Transformation", Ninth International Online Scientific and Practical Conference on

"Digital Ecosystem of Economy"), St. Petersburg (ICEST-II 2021: "Economic and Social Trends for Sustainability in Modern Society"), and materials were published in scientific essays, journals and monographs.

Publication of research results. The main results of the research are reflected in 13 scientific publications, of which 2 papers are included in Scopus database and 3 papers are published in journals in SFedU list of scientific editions, with a total of 15.11 author's sheet, of which the author's personal contribution is 10.83 author's sheet.

Structure and scope of the paper. The work consists of introduction, three chapters (each chapter has three paragraphs), conclusion and bibliography, with a total of 169 sources. The paper is explained by 23 figures and 19 tables. The work is 191 pages long.

1. CONTENT AND THEORY OF INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURAL UPGRADING AND FINANCIAL OPENING 1.1 Industrial structural upgrading theory: traditional and contemporary

approaches

The term "industry" describes a particular group of productive firms, corporations, and departments, and there are various methods of categorizing industries based on varying collecting criteria. "Structure" means the layout of a whole's distinct parts. Industrial structure, also known as the sectoral structure of the national economy, describes the composition of a country's economic activity, the production of human material provisions

Industrial structure refers to the departmental structure of social production and is built and developed on the basis of division of labor. The research on "industrial structure" focuses primarily on the interaction among the means of production and the various industrial sectors, including agriculture, manufacturing, and services.

The industrialization theory is the origin and foundation of the theory of traditional industrial structure upgrading. The industrialization theory is the most traditional paradigm for describing the transition between the various stages of economic development. Initially, according to the reality in England, it is clearly pointed out by William Petty in 1691, that the service sector is frequently more beneficial than the manufacturing sector; while the manufacturing sector is frequently more beneficial than the agriculture sector3. William Petty's idea is to explain the industrial and commercial development which are driven by the higher profit than agriculture. Clark has enriched the research results from William Petty. Clark adopts William Petty's idea to analyze the employment structure4.

Providing an empirical comparison of the allocation of the labour force across the agricultural, manufacturing and service sectors base on different income levels,

3 Brewer A. The Concept of An Agricultural Surplus, From Petty To Smith/Journal of The History of Economic Thought. 2011.Vol. 33. No. 4. P. 487-505.

4

Comim F. Richard Stone and Measurement Criteria for National Accounts//History of Political Economy. 2001 .Vol. 33, No. 5.P. 213-234.

Clark indicates that the labour force moves from agriculture to manufacturing at first and will finally concentrated in the service sector with the national income improvement and the economic development. Simon Kuznets developed the Petty-Clark concept further and implemented Petty- Clark's idea in the realm of national GDP accounting.

After compiling information on industrial structures in thirteen countries, Simon Kuznets found that as economies developed, the manufacturing sector's proportion of overall production output increased while agriculture's proportion declined, the share of service output remains stable during economic development5.

According to classical industrialization theory, the upgrading of industrial structure means either the redistribution of production factors or the re-layout of products among different industrial sectors6.

Generally speaking, in terms of classical industrialization theory, in academic research, the connotation of industrial structure upgrading mainly has the following connotations:

(1) The connotation of industrial structure upgrading in terms of industrialization development.

In terms of industrialization development, the evolution of industrial structure can be divided into five periods (Figure 1.1). First, the pre-industrialization period. At this time, the primary sector is the leading industrial sector, the secondary sector has begun to develop, and the tertiary sector is in a weak embryonic stage. The second is the initial stage of industrialization. At this time, the primary sector gradually declined, the secondary sector developed rapidly and occupied a dominant position, and the tertiary sector still accounted for a small proportion in the national economy, but it has developed to a certain extent. The third is the middle stage of industrialization. At this time, the secondary sector occupies the leading position, but the industrial focus has changed from the previous low-end industries to the

5 Kuznets, Simon. Modern economic growth: rate, structure, and spread/Journal of Political Economy. 1966.Vol. 37, No. 145, P. 475-476.

6 Zhang Hui, Yan Qiang-ming, & Huang Hao. Problems, influences and response of China's structural transformation from an international perspective//China Industrial Economics. 2019.No. 6, P.41-59.

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high-end processing industries, and the proportion and contribution of the tertiary sector have gradually increased. The fourth is late industrialization stage. At this stage, the tertiary sector, represented by the information industries, is developing rapidly and occupies an absolute dominant position in the national economy. The fifth is the post industrialization stage. The stage of post industrialization is characterized with knowledge economy, that is, innovative knowledge becomes the main feature of this stage.

Figure 1.1. Industrial structure upgrading in terms of industrialization development7

(2) The connotation of industrial structure upgrading in terms of leading industries

In terms of leading industries, the evolution of industrial structure can be divided into seven stages (Figure 1.2). First, the stage dominated by agriculture. At this stage, agriculture occupies an absolutely dominant position, and the development of the secondary and tertiary sectors is limited under the strong development momentum of agriculture. Second, the stage dominated by light textile industries. At this time, the strong dominant position of agriculture was weakened due to the rapid development of light industries; while the manufacturing sector as well as the service sector represented by heavy and chemical industries still expanded insignificantly. The third stage is centered around heavy and chemical industries. During this period, agriculture's share in the economy has been falling for some time. Although progress in the light industrial sector was steady, its rate of growth declined. However, with the fast development of raw materials and energy, the heavy and chemical industries have risen to the top of the industrial hierarchy.

The fourth is the stage dominated by low-end processing industries. At this stage, low-end processing industries developed rapidly such as machinery, steel and shipbuilding, which do not have too advanced technical requirements.

The fifth is the stage dominated by high-end processing and assembling industries. This stage is based on the high-speed development and a large number of applications of high-end and new technologies, including aircraft manufacturing, petrochemical industries and so on. Machinery and other heavy chemical industries with high technical level have made great progress and become the main driving force for national economic growth. The sixth stage is dominated by the tertiary industries. During this period, the traditional manufacturing has seen a big drop, while the emerging industries and high-tech industries are developing swiftly. Additionally, the internal adjustment and transformation of the industrial structure of the secondary sector has been rapid. Furthermore, the overall proportion of the secondary sector in economy decreased. The development pace and expansion rate of each industry in the service sector are quite evident, and the service sector as a whole contributes significantly to the national economy. Information industries take the leading position in the seventh stage of development. During this period, the development of internet things and the widespread implementation of digital technologies have accelerated the growth of the information industries.

Agriculture

Tertiary industries

Information industries

Light textile industries High-end processing and assembling industries

Heavy and chemical industries -* Low-end processing industries

Figure 1.2. Industrial structure upgrading in terms of leading industries8 (3) The connotation of industrial structure upgrading in terms of the internal structure of each industrial sector.

Among the structure of different industrial sector, the evolution direction of industrial structure is from dominating by the agriculture sector, dominating by the manufacturing sector to dominating by the tertiary sector (figure 1.3).

Agriculture sector Manufacturing sector Tertiary sector

Extensive Agriculture Light textile industries Traditional service

t > f

Intensive Agriculture \ { Produer service

f Heavy and chemical industries \

Green Agriculture Modem service

■ f > /

Ecological Agriculture Processing industries Information service

Figure 1.3. Industrial structure upgrading in terms of internal structure of each industrial sector9

Among the internal structure of each industrial sector, the specific development is as follows:

1). The internal structure of the primary sector upgrades along the direction of extensive agriculture - intensive agriculture - green agriculture and ecological agriculture;

2). The internal structure of the manufacturing sector is generally evolving from the light textile industries to the heavy and chemical industries, and then to the processing industries. From the perspective of production factors, the evolution of internal structure of the manufacturing sector is from labor-intensive industries to capital-intensive industries, and then to knowledge-intensive industries.

3). The tertiary sector's internal structure evolves from classic service industries, contemporary service industries to digital industries.

Regardless of the type of development and evolutionary trends in the industrial structure, the industrial structure is gradually moving from low-tech to

high-tech, with innovation in science and technology as the driving force of development.101112

Macroeconomic factors, as well as the country's resource determinants, are influencing changes in the structure of industry towards adapting to them. In particular, the data in Figure 1.4 show that, unlike in previous years, China's share of the manufacturing sector starts to increase from 2020, contributing to the problem of "premature de-industrialization". This demonstrates that the coronavirus pandemic has been a strong trigger for a structural transformation of China's industry focused on in-demand production and the formation of adaptive supply chains (Figure1.4).

2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50

0,00

Figure 1.4. China's industrial structure in 2000-2021 (service sector to manufacturing ratio, times)13

In the meantime, an analysis of the role of innovative industries in China's industrial structure (Figure 1.5) demonstrates that it remains stable and that their contribution to the structural transformation of the country's industry has not increased over the years. Therefore, special attention should be paid to the internal structural transformation of industry under the impact of changes in their resource endowment in the context of increasing financial openness potential. Figure 1.5 also

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10Gorelova G.V., Matveeva L.G., Chernova O.A. Ecosystem Approach to Managing Industrial Innovation Processes// Journal of New Economics . 2021. T. 22. №2. C.44-65;

"Kuizheva S.K., Matveeva L.G., Zarubin V.I., Chernova O.A., OvsyannikovaT.A. Innovation resonances in the development of industrial water management ecosystems// Revista Geintec-Gestao Inovacao e Tecnologias. 2021. Vol. 11 No. 4,P.1598-1614;

12 Doroshenko, Y.A., Malykhina, I.O., Somina, I.V. Studying the mechanism of infrastructure support of high-tech business as an integrator of innovation-investment development // Espacios. 2018. 39(47).

13 Developed by the author.

presents how the percentage of high-tech exports in total exports and the percentage of value-added of the medium-and high-end industries in GDP from 2000 to 2021. It demonstrates that cutting-edge industries in Russia have not play an significant role in industrial structure upgrading over the past two decades. To promote the industrial structure upgrading in Russia, it is imperative to support the development of cutting-edge industries by exploiting the potential of various resource factors.

Figure 1.5. Comparative context of the role of high-tech industry in the Chinese and Russian economies, 2000-2021.14

Thus, the comparative dynamics presented in Figure 6 illustrate that high-tech industries do not contribute significantly to the structural transformation of industry in both China and Russia. This aspect should receive additional attention in the current and long term.

There is no doubt that the main imperative and direction of modern economic growth and development is the rationalization of resource supply15 (rationality of resource consumption) of industrial production and the structural transformation of

4 Developed by the author

15

Kosolapova, N.A., Matveeva, L.G., Nikitaeva, A.Y. et al. The Rational Use of Water Resources in the Strategy of Industry 4.0// Water Resour Manage .2021. Vol.35, P.3023-3041.

industry (including modernisation) 16 on the basis of continuous scientific and technological progress.17

In academic, there are generally three kinds of theories about the driving force of industrial structure upgrading: demand structure difference, technology structure difference and endowment structure difference. Kongsamut et al18 think because people have different preferences, with the increase of income, the preference and demand for various products will change too. Because market equilibrium requires the matching of supplies and demands, different demands for various products finally will lead to different supplies, thus leading to the industrial structure upgrading.

Ngai and Pissarides propose that there are differences in the development speed of technologies in different industrial sectors. Different development speed of technologies will result in different production cost of various products. Furthermore, since varying production costs will result in varying market prices and contribute to varying output volume, the industrial structure will also be altered19.

According to the theory of New Structure Economics, technological innovation is developed on the accumulation of capital and labour, so it is also endogenous in the endowment structure. People's preference and demand for various products can change with the increase of income, but the national income is also endogenous in the endowment structure.

From the perspective of New Structure Economics, the upgrading of industrial structure is the consequence, and the change in endowment structure is the driving force20.

16 Balashova, E.S., Gromova, E.A. Agile transformation of the Russian sector of economy according to the legislative framework // Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics. 2018. 8(3), c. 749-753.

17 Doroshenko, Y.A., Malykhina, I.O., Somina, I.V. Problems and prospects of scaling of high-tech-business as an innovativeinvestment driver of economic systems development // Espacios. 2018. Vol.39, No.47.

18. Kongsamut, P., Rebelo, S., &Xie, D.Y. Beyond Balanced Growth//Review of Economic Studies. 2001.Vol. 68, No. 5, P. 869-882.

19 Ngai, L.R., &Pissarides, C.A. Structural Change in A Multi-Sector Model of Growth/American Economic Review. 2007.Vol. 97, P. 429-443.

20 Inshakova E.I., Ryzhenkov A.Y., Inshakova A.O. Neo-Industrialization of the Russian Economy: Technological and Digital Development. Ubiquitous Computing and the Internet of Things: Prerequisites for the Development of ICT// Studies in Computational Intelligence.2019. Vol .826.

20

According to the market equilibrium principle of neoclassical economics, the equilibrium of supply and demand for the endowment structure determines the prices of the endowment factors. The utilization of an endowment factor in the industrial structure is more intensive, the demand for this endowment factor is greater, its price will be higher. Different industrial structure will bring different benefits, but because of the constraint of given endowment structure, different industrial structure will have different production cost too. According to the rational assumption in neoclassical economics, the selection of optimal industrial structure is the result of the trade-off between cost and benefit. Furthermore, the endowment factors and endowment structure in a country will change over time. Specifically, the changes in endowment structure come from the accumulation of endowment factors, but the accumulation of endowment factors depends on the economic surplus. In turn, the economic surplus is determined by the industrial structure. So, although industrial structure is endogenous in endowment structure, it can determine the accumulation of endowment factors, thus resulting in the change of endowment structure. Therefore, the essence of a country's economic development lies in the process in which endowment structure and industrial structure promote the development of each other continuously.

According to New Structural Economics, endowment factors such as labor, capital are factors that can directly influence industrial structure. But the driving factors of industrial structure upgrading should not only include direct factors, but also include indirect factors.

This study holds that, as an economic phenomenon, industrial structure can be influenced by many factors. Demand and supply are two critical constraints for the development of an economic phenomena.

Therefore, this study will analyze the factors that can influence industrial structure upgrading both from the demand side and the supply side. Investment, consumption and trade are the factors from demand side that can affect the upgrading of industrial structure. The production factors such as employment, capital and

technology are the factors from supply side that can affect the upgrading of industrial structure.

At first, in terms of supply side, the labor force is an indispensable factor to the production and the industrial structure upgrading. Labour-abundant countries can have lower labour costs, benefit from the "demographic dividend" and replace capital with cheap labour, thus promoting the development of labor-intensive industries. In addition to this, the improvement in the human capital, can also improve the efficiency of various production factors, which is conducive to the upgrading of industrial structure too.

Capital is the basic element of large-scale industrial development. Marx has emphasized the important role of capital in the process of social reproduction in "Das Kapital". The allocation of capital among industries determines the speed of industrial development and the level of industrial structure in a country. The germination of emerging industries and the expansion of mature industries require necessary support from the capital accumulation. The exit of backward industries also requires corresponding capital transfer.

Therefore, the allocation of the capital is an important factor in determining the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure.

The technical level will determine the efficiency of production factors, which can promote the adjustment and flow of production factors, such as labor, capital, between different industrial sectors, thus changing the industrial structure. Technology can also encourage the development of novel organizational structures and manufacturing approaches, which can boost productivity. Therefore, technology is another driving force for the optimization and upgrading of a country's industrial structure.

Although the production factors are the basis of industrial development, the emerge, maturity and decline of industries are the embodiment of social demands. Therefore, the factors from demand side can guide the changing direction of the industrial structure. Adapting to and satisfying social demands is the goal of optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure. The improvement of national

income and the accumulation of national wealth can stimulate the increase of the household consumption demand. This can lead to the upgrading of industrial structure. In addition to household consumption, investment is the production demand of enterprises.

By redistribution of production factors among different industrial sectors, the investment can influence the industrial structure as well and incent the optimization of industrial structure. For example, regional differences in investment will affect regional industrial layout. Government purchase is the embodiment of government consumption demand. Generally speaking, the government's financial investment is an important aspect of government functions. Government purchases is an important source of funds for the development of industries with public service attributes such as public health, education.

With the tide of globalization, national economic development and industrial structure upgrading are no longer the result of the internal cycle of national economy, but also affected by the external cycle of international economy. International Trade has been the primary means by which nations have integrated into the global value chain and has also drastically altered the industrial structure of each nation. International trade includes import and export. Export can be regarded as the demand from the international market. The change in export quantity and export structure has a direct impact on the development and layout of domestic industries. Import can increase competition between domestic industries, create industrial demand and promote the improvement of domestic industrial technology.

The institutional economic school represented by Coase emphasize the important influence of institutional arrangement on economic development 21 . Similarly, institutional framework is also an important factor affecting industrial development and reformation. It is an important driving force for the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. First, institutional arrangements can change the incentive mechanism, and then affect the allocation of production factors. In the

21 Coase, R. H. The institutional structure of production//The American Economic Review.1992. Vol. 82, No. 4, P. 713719.

context of the resource allocation mode led by the government, industrial development is prone to reflect national interests; while in the context of the resource allocation mode led by the market, industrial development is prone to reflect the demand of the market. Second, a better institutional arrangement can provide a stable, fair and efficient business environment for the social production, technological progress, and the agglomeration of production factors, thus promoting industrial structure upgrading.

In light of the principle of new structure economics, either for a country or a region, the industrial structure is the main driving force for the sustainable economic growth. It is the achievement of the country 's past economic development and the foundation for the future economic development. The change of industrial structure and the direction of its adjustment are not arbitrarily but subject to the constraints of economic development in different periods. It manifests itself in the constant optimization of industrial structure, namely, the horizontal readjustment of industrial structure and the upgrading of industrial structure from low-level to high-level. This process of continuous optimization is also known as the upgrading of industrial structure. It is the upgrading of industrial structure that provides a strong driving force for economic development. Practice has proved that with the wide application of science and technology, the upgrading of industrial structure has become an inevitable trend that is not based on human will. The industrial structure is upgraded step by step with economic development.

1.2 Economic content, essence and theoretical aspects of financial opening as a resource for industrial structure upgrading

The concept of 'financial opening' was born out of the concept of 'financial liberalization. Two different epochs can be identified in the development of the theory of financial liberalization. To analyze why developing countries remain lagging in comparison with developed countries, researchers observed that "financial repression" is typically prevalent in developing countries. It can be

founded in the works of Gurley and Shaw22, Goldsmith23, McKinnon24 and Shaw25. They posit out that due to "financial repression," the government-controlled interest rate cannot move freely in response to market demand, hence impeding economic progress. They advocate the government should abdicate the compulsory administrative methods and let the economic operation dominated by market demand, that is so-called financial liberalization. Nevertheless, during the 1980s, some developing countries which implemented financial liberalization have not realized economic growth but encountered financial risks. As a result, based on the lessons and experienced of the process of financial opening in developing countries, scholars point out that it is necessary to realize financial liberalization step by step and financial liberalization should be in a sequence, which can be found in the works of McKinnon 26and Maxwell27.Therefore, to maintain the stability of economic development and constrain financial risks in the meantime, the developing countries should carry out financial liberalization in a certain order. As the notion of financial liberalization develops, academics introduce new terminology like "financial integration," "financial globalization," and "financial opening". In the literature, all these terminologies are frequently used indiscriminately and have identical definition. The euro-area financial integration, according to Hartmann et al., is an integration of currency markets, credit markets, capital markets28. Heathcote and Perri classify the tendency in which international commerce in financial assets has risen substantially and financial markets have grown more linked as financial

22 Gurley, J.G., &Shaw, E.S. Money in a theory of finance. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.1960.

23 Goldsmith, R.W. Financial Structure and Development. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. 1969.

24 McKinnon, R. I. Money and capital in economic development. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution. 1973.

25. Shaw, E.S. Financial deepening in economic development. New York, NY: Oxford University Press. 1973.

26. McKinnon, R.I. The sequence Of economic liberalization: financial control in the transition to market economy. Baltimore, Maryland: Johns Hopkins University Press. 1993.

27. Maxwell. F. In favor of financial liberalization//The Economic Journal.1997. Vol. 107, No. 442, P. 754-770.

28 Hartmann, P., Maddaloni, A., &Manganelli, S. The euro-area financial system: structure, integration, and policy initiatives// Oxford Review of Economic, Policy. 2003. Vol. 19, No. 1, P. 180-213.

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globalization29.Chen suggests that financial integration is the final object of financial opening30

In short, the connotation of "financial opening" refers to the dynamic process that a country gradually liberalizes financial account and integrate local financial system into international financial market, while the connotation of "financial globalization" and "financial integration" emphasize the static results. Both "financial globalization" and "financial integration" are final result of financial opening. Therefore, this study adopts the concept "financial opening" and regards the concept of "financial opening" refers to the dynamic process that a country gradually realizes "financial globalization" or "financial integration". Participation in financial globalization often entails two components for a nation: the liberalization of financial accounts and the internalization of financial institutions. Furthermore, the liberalization of financial accounts and the internalization of financial institutions can promote each other 31. Cross-border financial services provided by a financial institution need that the capital can flow freely across borders. If a country promises to open a cross-border financial service, it must allow for the international capital inflow or outflow too. As for the opening order, the opening of financial institutions should be prior to the opening of financial account, because with advanced and stable financial industries under the comprehensive supervision , a country can resist the financial risks brought by the international capital flow under the full opening of financial account.

Globalization is a term commonly used to refer to the free flow of goods and services, capital, technology, and knowledge. Countries engaged actively in globalization have experienced phenomenal changes in economic, social, cultural, political, and technological progress32. Now, globalization has experienced trade

29

Heathcote, J., &Perri, F. Financial globalization and real regionalization//Journal of Economic Theory. 2004.Vol. 119, No. 1, P. 207-243.

30

Chen, J. International Capital Flows and Financial Opening. In Proceedings of the 2004 international conference on management science & engineering. Harbin, DB: Harbin Inst Technol.2004.

31. Yiping, Huang. Proactively and steadily advancing China's financial opening//China Economic Journal.2018. P.1-13.

32 Cheng, M. Y., & Mittelhammer, R. Globalization and economic development: impact of social capital and institutional building//The American Journal of Economics and Sociology.2008. Vol. 67, No. 5, P. 859-888.

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globalization, production globalization, and enters the third stage, financial globalization. Financial globalization is the development trend of globalization. In the future, more and more countries will participate in the process of financial globalization and every country expects to benefit from this process. Generally speaking, through financial opening, host country can get international capital and advanced technology; while home country can get more profit. Although financial opening has two components: the internalization of financial institutions and the liberalization of financial account, name is , the free flow of cross-border capital. The opening of financial institutions is meant to pave the way for the free movement of cross-border capital .the purpose of opening of financial institutions is to facilitate the opening of financial account, The opening of financial account means international capital can flow inward and outward the domestic market freely. Therefore, the driving factors of financial opening mainly refer to the driving factors of international capital flow. Because the flow of international capital is from the home country to the host country, home countries are the supplier of international capital, while host countries are the demander of international capital. So, this study will analyze the driving factors of financial opening from the perspectives of home country and host country, respectively.

From the perspectives of home countries, the theories to explain the driving force of international capital flow mainly include the followings.

(1). Macdougall Model33

The model put forward by MacDougall is a theory used to explain the motivation and the effects of international capital flows, and it is actually a classical economic theory. This theory holds that the reason for international capital flow is the difference in expected rate of return among countries. The model assumes that the production factor market and goods market of each country is a perfect competitive market. International capital can flow freely from capital-abundant countries to capital-deficient countries. The model also assumes that the whole

33 MacDougall, D. The Benefits and Costs of Private Investment from Abroad: A Theoretical Approach// Economic record.1960. Vol. 36, No. 73, P. 13-35.

world consists of two countries, one with abundant capital and the other with deficient capital. The investment benefits of the two countries follow the law of diminishing marginal returns, that is, the output of each additional unit of capital input is lower. Without financial opening, in a closed economy, whether it is a capital-abundant country or a capital-deficient country, capital can only be used domestically. Nevertheless, in a free market, international capital flows compel the marginal return on capital conformance in all countries, which can yield better profits to countries with sufficient capital; countries with deficient capital also acquire more national wealth as a result of the raise in overall production caused by the influx of international capital. Although assumptions of Macdougall Model are idealistic, it is much simpler than real life.

(2). International Securities Investment Theory

The theories of international securities investment analyze international capital flow from the perspective of how rational investors should make the best investment choice in the face of uncertainty, in order to reduce investment risks and achieve the goal of maximizing investment income. There are mainly two sorts of this theory, one is the classical international securities investment theory, the other is the modern portfolio theory. The classical international securities investment theory came into being before the rapid development of international direct investment and transnational corporations. Ragnar Nurkse believes that the cause of international securities investment is the difference of the international interest rate among countries34. If the interest rate of one country is lower than that of another country, financial capital will flow from the country with low interest rate to the country with high interest rate until there is no difference in the interest rates of these two countries. However, this theory only explains the flow of capital from low interest rate countries to high interest rate countries but fails to explain why there are a large number of two-way flows of capital between countries. Furthermore, on some occasions, even if there is an interest rate difference between countries, it will

34 Ragnar Nurkse. Causes and effects of capital movements (1934). In R. Kattel, J. Kregel, & E. Reinert (Eds.), Trade and Development. Anthem Press. 2009.P.1-14. doi:10.7135/UPO9781843318187.004

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not necessarily lead to international securities investment because of impacts from other factors. Moreover, the theory assumes the free flow of international capital, which is inconsistent with the reality. In reality, restrictions on capital flows imposed by the government can be seen everywhere. Modern portfolio theory explains how investors choose among various assets to form the best portfolio, so that when the investment income is certain, the risk is minimized, or when the investment risk is certain, the income is maximized. Markowiz believes that all assets have the duality of risk and income and the risk is associated with the income35. Therefore, investors should not only take the expected return as the sole criterion for selecting investment securities, but also pay attention to investment risks. A variety of securities portfolio can improve investment income, reduce investment risk, thus playing a role in risk diversification. As investors, they may choose securities from different countries, which will cause two-way capital flows between countries. Modern portfolio theory points out that any asset has the duality of income and risk and proposes the idea of reducing investment risk by investment portfolio, which contributes to international capital flows. It has its progressiveness and rationality. However, this theory is mainly used to explain international securities capital flows, while it does not explain international direct investment. In addition, the theory assumes that the market is fully effective, and participants can get sufficient investment information at the same time, which is inconsistent with the reality.

(3). Monopoly advantages theory

Based on the theory of market imperfections , Hymer has analyzed the trans-nationalization process of enterprises and indicated that in the competition with enterprises from host countries, enterprises from home countries must have specific advantages because Foreign Direct Investment will only take place if the benefits of exploiting firm-specific advantages outweigh the relative costs of the operations abroad. In his 1960 doctoral dissertation36, Hymer suggests that incomplete competition in domestic and international markets and monopoly advantages of

35 Markowitz, H. Portfolio selection // The Journal of Finance. 1952. Vol.7. No.1, P.77-91.

36Hymer's dissertation was subsequently published in book form in 1976.

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enterprises are the decisive factors or fundamental reasons for transnational corporations' foreign direct investment37.When some enterprises have monopoly advantages that other enterprises do not have, this advantage can help them expand the market scope. Since then, in 1970, Kindleberger, who worked in the same school as Hymer, has supplemented the monopoly advantages of the enterprise on the basis of Hymer's research, such as: trademarks, management capabilities, financing channels, etc.38.

The theory of monopoly advantages distinguishes foreign direct investment from securities investment and emphasizes that international capital flow is the choice of profit maximization based on monopoly advantages of trans-national enterprises. Otherwise, this theory could not explain the foreign investment behavior of small and medium-sized enterprises without monopoly advantages. Furthermore, the problem of location selection, that is, why the trans-national select specific host country to investment than the others, is also not involved in the theory.

(4). Internalization theory

Classic internalization theory tells that, trans-national enterprises (MNEs) emerge when the benefits of internalization exceed the costs39. The theory was further enriched by Buckley and Casson later. They regard the external market transaction and internal market management of enterprises as two ways to allocate resources for enterprises and believes that there are transaction costs such as incomplete market and trade barriers between countries in the external market40. Enterprises can transfer the external market into internal management in enterprises through foreign direct investment. With this kind of operation, enterprises can allocate resources globally. Internalization theory emphasizes that the essence of international capital flow of enterprises does not lie in the transnational transfer of capital, but in the international expansion of ownership and management of the

37Hymer, S.H. The international operation of national firms: a study of direct foreign investment. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, United States.1976.

38. Denisia, V. Foreign Direct Investment Theories: An Overview of The Main FDI Theories//European journal of interdisciplinary studies. 2010.No. 3.

39Coase, R. H. The nature of the firm//Economic (New Series). 1937. Vol. 4, P. 387-405.