Концептуализация социальных движений Бангладеш после 2013 года: сравнительное исследование пяти движений тема диссертации и автореферата по ВАК РФ 00.00.00, кандидат наук Гхош Сайкот Чандра -

• Гхош Сайкот Чандра -
• кандидат наук
• 2025

Оглавление диссертации кандидат наук Гхош Сайкот Чандра -

Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION

Statement of the Research Problem

Research Questions

Goals and Objectives of the Research

Conjectural Statements/ Assumptions

Scope and Limitations of Research

Methodology

Research Design

Data Collection Methods

Ethnographic Fieldwork

Secondary Data Analysis

Case Sampling Strategy

Data Analysis

Ethical Considerations

Limitations

Scientific Contribution and Significance of the Research

Articles

CHAPTER ONE: THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL FOUNDATIONS

1.1 Introduction

1.2Social Movement Theory: From Resource Mobilisation to Political Process Theory (PPT):

1.3 Social Movement Impact

1.4 New Social Movement Theory (NSM)

CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Movements in the Pre-Independence Period:

2.2 Post-Independence movements

CHAPTER THREE: The Aftermath of Shahbag Movement: Metamorphoses of State, Civil Society, and Social Movements, in Bangladesh

3.1 Background of Polarisation:

3.2 Outlining Polarisation

3.3 Shahbag's Evolution, State's Authoritarian Shift, and Transformation of Civil Society

3.4 Shahbag's Legacy: Lessons Carved, Paths Rewritten in Bangladesh's Movement Playbook

3.5 The Shahbag Pardox: New Civic Activism in Bangladesh

CHAPTER FOUR: Beyond Material Grievances: Analysing the 2015 Bangladesh "No VAT on Education" Movement

4.1 Emerging New Social Movement

4.2 Traits of NSM in Bangladesh's Student Movement: Legacy from 1952 to the Neoliberal Frontlines

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4.3 The 2015 "No VAT on Education" Movement: An Overview

4.4 Reimagining the 2015 No VAT Movement Through an NSM Prism

CHAPTER FIVE: A Qualitative and Comparative Case Study of the Quota Reform Movement and the Road Safety Movement

5.1 Background of the Movements:

5.2 The Case of Quota Reform Movement

5.3 The Case of the Road Safety Movement:

5.4 Dimensions of the Two Movements

CHAPTER SIX: Discussion

Conclusion:

References:

Appendix A: List of Interview Questions

Appendix B: List of Interview Respondents

Appendix C: Interview Transcripts (part):

Appendix D: Thematic Coding Framework

Appendix D: Russian Translation of the Thesis

Введение диссертации (часть автореферата) на тему «Концептуализация социальных движений Бангладеш после 2013 года: сравнительное исследование пяти движений»

INTRODUCTION

Statement of the Research Problem

The socio-political trajectory of Bangladesh from 2008 to 2024 presents a perplexing paradox that lies at the heart of this dissertation: a nation marked by profound socioeconomic grievances—youth unemployment, systemic corruption, and moral decline—coupled with a democratic mandate betrayed by authoritarian consolidation, yet witnessing remarkably few social movements capable of challenging the Awami League's 15-year rule. The regime's ascent in the 2008 election, heralded as a democratic triumph, promised modernisation and institutional strengthening. However, this hope was swiftly eclipsed by electoral fraud in 2014 and 2019, suppression of opposition, and repressive measures like the Digital Security Act, transforming Bangladesh into a landscape of political stagnation and fear (Riaz, 2019; Moniruzzaman, 2019). Socioeconomic crises deepened this disillusionment: youth unemployment reached 15% by 2020, corruption scandals like the Padma Bridge case eroded trust, and rising crime signalled a fraying social fabric (World Bank, 2020; Transparency International, 2020). Despite these conditions—ripe for collective action as seen in global protest cycles like the Arab Spring—the Awami League faced limited resistance, with movements like the Shahbag Movement (2013), Shapla Square Protests (2013), No VAT on Education Movement (2015), Quota Reform Movement (2018), and Road Safety Protests (2018) struggling to sustain momentum or effect lasting change. This scarcity of transformative movements, their failure to convert mass discontent into systemic reform, and their role in deepening political polarisation and reinforcing authoritarianism form the central research problem of this study.

This paradox is not merely a local anomaly but a critical lens into the dynamics of contentious

politics in postcolonial, neoliberal, and authoritarian contexts. The Shahbag Movement, ignited

by demands for justice for 1971 war crimes, mobilized thousands via social media but polarized

society along secular-Islamist lines, sparking the counter-movement of Shapla Square and enabling the state to justify repression as a defense against chaos. The 2015 No VAT on Education Movement, initially a protest against a 7.5% tax on private university tuition, transcended economic grievances to critique neoliberal governance, yet its policy victory was fleeting, lacking political leverage to challenge systemic power. The 2018 Quota Reform and Road Safety movements, while capturing public outrage over inequitable job quotas and transport sector corruption, diverged in outcomes—temporary concessions for the former, dissipation for the latter—highlighting the structural barriers to sustained activism under authoritarian constraints. These movements, unfolding over a decade culminating in the dramatic collapse of nominal democracy in August 2024, when the Prime Minister fled amid unrest, reflect a broader tension: grassroots activism both challenges and inadvertently reinforces authoritarian regimes by creating divisions exploitable by the state. This study seeks to unravel why social movements in Bangladesh post-2013 remained limited despite pervasive grievances, why they faltered in translating initial enthusiasm into lasting success, and how they contributed to polarisation and democratic decline.

The significance of this research problem lies in its dual focus on local and global dimensions of

contentious politics. Locally, it addresses a gap in Bangladeshi scholarship by systematically

comparing five pivotal movements through a qualitative and longitudinal lens, linking grassroots

activism to macro-political outcomes like polarisation and authoritarianism. Globally, it engages

with debates on social movements in an era of democratic backsliding, offering insights into how

activism navigates authoritarian constraints in contexts like Hungary, India, or Turkey, where

regimes exploit societal fragmentation to entrench power. The Bangladeshi case illuminates the

ambivalent role of social movements: as catalysts for change that expose state excesses (e.g.,

police brutality, electoral fraud) and as inadvertent enablers of authoritarianism through

polarisation and fragmentation. This tension is particularly acute in postcolonial settings like

Bangladesh, where neoliberal pressures intersect with historical legacies of activism (e.g., the

1952 Language Movement) and ideological divides (secularism versus Islamism), creating a complex terrain for collective action.

Theoretically, this study anchors its exploration in Political Process Theory (PPT) and New Social Movement (NSM) theory, which together provide a robust framework to dissect the structural and cultural dimensions of the research problem (Canel, 1997). PPT, emphasizing political opportunities, mobilizing structures, and framing processes, explains why movements like Quota Reform achieved temporary policy gains through organized student networks and public sympathy, while Road Safety faltered due to spontaneous organization and state repression (McAdam, 1999; Tarrow, 1998). NSM theory, focusing on identity, post-material values, and cultural contestation, reframes the 2015 VAT protests as a resistance to neoliberal commodification of education, forging a collective student identity that challenged systemic power (Touraine, 1981; Melucci, 1989; Habermas, 1984). These frameworks illuminate the dual burden facing Bangladeshi activists: navigating a closed political opportunity structure—marked by state repression, media censorship, and judicial alignment—while articulating cultural critiques that resonate beyond material grievances. The research problem thus probes the interplay of structural constraints (e.g., lack of elite allies, repressive laws) and cultural aspirations (e.g., justice, autonomy), which together explain the movements' limited impact and their paradoxical role in democratic decline.

Research Questions

The central research question of this study is to investigate the complex interplay between social movements, civil society, political polarisation, and authoritarianism in Bangladesh from 2013 to 2024, a period marked by the Awami League's prolonged rule. How have social movements in Bangladesh post-2013 influenced the dynamics of socio-political polarisation, which is shaped by politics and religion and the consolidation of authoritarian governance, and what do their trajectories reveal about the challenges and consequences of collective action and subsequent

social movements in a constrained socio-political environment?

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Several thematic questions guide this inquiry, each addressing a facet of the research problem:

• How did the Shahbag Movement, a heavily ideology-driven social movement, intended to reinforce secularism and historical justice, exacerbate socio-political polarisation? How did their interactions with state power and civil society inadvertently reinforce authoritarianism by creating divisions exploitable by the regime?

• What is the impact of the Shahbag Movement on the subsequent social movements in Bangladesh?

• In what ways did the 2015 No VAT on Education Movement transcend material grievances to articulate a cultural critique of neoliberal governance and forge a collective identity?

• What structural differences between the Quota Reform and Road Safety movements explain their divergent trajectory and outcomes in the constrained political environment of Bangladesh?

The research problem is timely and urgent, given Bangladesh's recent political upheaval and the global rise of authoritarianism. It challenges assumptions that grievances naturally spark sustained resistance, revealing how authoritarian regimes survive protest waves by manipulating polarisation and fragmenting opposition. This study provides a critical case study of contentious politics in a postcolonial, neoliberal context, with implications for understanding activism's limits and potential in an era of democratic decline. Ultimately, it seeks to illuminate how social movements, despite their aspirations for justice and change, navigate a treacherous landscape where resistance can both challenge and entrench the very power it seeks to dismantle, offering lessons for Bangladesh and beyond as they grapple with the future of democracy.

These questions frame the research problem as a multifaceted inquiry into the interplay of social movements, polarisation, and authoritarianism. These questions frame the

dissertation's analysis, drawing on PPT and NSM theory to dissect the structural, cultural, and political dimensions of social movements in Bangladesh. They guide the exploration of why movements emerged, why they often failed to achieve lasting transformation, and how they both challenged and inadvertently reinforced authoritarianism, offering insights into the broader paradox of resistance in a polarised and repressive context.

Goals and Objectives of the Research

The main goal of this research is to analyse how social movements in Bangladesh's increasingly authoritarian context have influenced social polarisation, civil society, and state structures, as well as their role in shaping the country's socio-political decline.

Specific objectives-

• Investigate the role of social movements in social polarisation shaped by politics and religion.

• Examine the interaction between social movements and authoritarianism: study how social movements reciprocally challenge or reinforce authoritarian regimes

• Compare the outcomes, successes, organisational capacity: employing Political Process Theory (PPT) and New Social Movement Theory

Conjectural Statements/ Assumptions

1. The rise of authoritarianism in Bangladesh is an unintended but unavoidable result of the

2013 Shahbag movement, which originally aimed for justice and accountability. The

movement led to significant divisions within Bangladeshi civil society, creating two

polarised factions: secular Bengali nationalists and non-secular Islamists, further

exacerbating religious and political intolerance. Political groups and state apparatuses co-

opted the Shahbag movement, diverting its original objectives and turning it into a tool

for their agendas, thereby diluting its focus on secularism and justice. Eventually, with

partial fulfilment of demand and with the Bangladesh state taking an authoritarian turn, the Shahbag Movement slowly settled down as a civil society pressure group.

2. While earlier student movements were primarily driven by historical and ideological concerns, contemporary movements focus more on tangible issues related to governance and everyday life challenges. After the Shahbag movement, subsequent social movements focused more on material-based issues like road safety, quota reform, environmental protection, and gender justice, which resonated more with citizens' daily needs. Material-based issues have proven more effective than ideology or identity-based concerns in mobilising and uniting a diverse civil society.

3. Appearing as a material-based social movement, it can surpass its immediate material objectives and evolve into a New Social Movement, thereby fostering a collective identity. Youth-led social movements in Bangladesh, exemplified by the 2015 No VAT on Education Movement, transcend material grievances to engage in cultural contestation, aligning with NSM theory by challenging neoliberal governance and forging collective identities rooted in post-material values like autonomy and justice.

4. The divergent outcomes of social movements under authoritarian regimes are shaped by their organisational capacity and political opportunity structures, as demonstrated by the 2018 Quota Reform Movement's partial success due to robust mobilising structures and strategic framing, contrasted with the 2018 Road Safety Movement's failure due to its spontaneous organisation.

This study will systematically examine each of these assertions, substantiating them with empirical evidence while situating the analysis within the relevant theoretical framework. Additionally, it will elaborate on these statements by introducing further nuances and detailed insights.

Scope and Limitations of Research

This study examines the dynamics of social movements in Bangladesh from 2013 to 2024, a period characterised by the Awami League's prolonged rule and deepening polarisation. The study focuses on five pivotal social movements—the Shahbag Movement (2013), the Shapla Square Protests (2013), the 2015 No VAT on Education Movement, the 2018 Quota Reform Movement, and the 2018 Road Safety Movement—to explore their origins, trajectories, and impacts. Geographically, the research is confined to Bangladesh, with a particular emphasis on urban centres like Dhaka, where these movements were most active. Thematically, the study investigates how these movements navigated ideological and material grievances, shaped civil society, and interacted with state power, drawing on Political Process Theory (PPT) and New Social Movement (NSM) theory to analyse their structural, cultural, and socio-political dimensions.

While this dissertation provides a comprehensive analysis of social movements in Bangladesh, it is subject to a few limitations that reflect the constraints of its scope and methodology. The study focuses exclusively on five social movements, selected for their prominence and diversity in grievances and outcomes. This selection, while strategic, excludes other movements during the period, such as those centred on environmental protection or gender justice, which may offer additional insights into civil society dynamics. However, the chosen movements are representative of the broader trends of social movements in Bangladesh and are the most prominent movements during the period, ensuring the study's relevance to the research questions. Accessing primary data posed challenges due to the repressive political environment in Bangladesh. Many activists were reluctant to share information, fearing surveillance or reprisals, which limited the depth of certain accounts. Additionally, government restrictions on media and public archives hindered access to official records. The dissertation addresses this issue through firsthand accounts and cross-verifying them with independent sources, though some gaps in documentation may persist. Additionally, interviews were carried out with key

leaders and activists associated with the movements, a methodological choice that could enhance the robustness and depth of the gathered interview data. The study's focus on Bangladesh limits its generalizability to other authoritarian contexts. While it draws parallels with movements in similar settings, the unique historical and cultural factors in Bangladesh shape the movements in ways that may not fully apply elsewhere.

Methodology Research Design

The study employs a qualitative, comparative, multi-case study design to facilitate an in-depth exploration of the five selected movements within their socio-political context. Qualitative methods are particularly suited to this research, as they allow for a nuanced understanding of complex social phenomena, capturing the lived experiences, motivations, and perceptions of movement participants (Creswell & Poth, 2018). The comparative case study approach enables systematic analysis of similarities and differences across the movements, illuminating why some achieved temporary policy concessions (e.g., Quota Reform) as partial success, while others faltered (e.g., Road Safety), and how they collectively contributed to socio-political polarisation and authoritarianism. Each movement is treated as a distinct case, selected for its temporal relevance (post-2013), societal impact, and representation of diverse grievances, ranging from justice for war crimes (Shahbag) to economic access (VAT protests) and systemic reform (Quota Reform and Road Safety).

The analysis of social movements in Bangladesh from 2013 to 2024, characterised by a repressive socio-political environment and deepening polarisation, demands a theoretical framework that captures both the cultural aspirations and structural constraints shaping collective action (Canel, 1997). The research is anchored in two theoretical frameworks: PPT and NSM theory. PPT, as articulated by McAdam (1999) and Tarrow (1998), provides a

structural/organisational lens to analyse how political opportunities, mobilising structures, and framing processes influenced each movement's emergence and outcomes which explains the question about how the movement is organised. This framework is particularly applied to the Quota Reform and Road Safety movements, where organisational capacity and state responses were critical. NSM theory, developed by Touraine (1981), Melucci (1989), and Habermas (1984), emphasises identity formation, post-material values, and cultural contestation, offering a cultural lens to reinterpret the VAT protests as a resistance to neoliberal governance. The dual theoretical approach ensures a balanced analysis of structural and cultural dynamics, aligning with the study's aim to bridge local activism with global patterns of contentious politics. This synthesis provides a holistic framework to examine how Bangladeshi movements navigated authoritarian constraints, forged collective identities, and influenced societal and state dynamics. Furthermore, as a supplementary facet of social movement theory, the social movement impact framework (Gamson, 1975) is partially integrated to elucidate the consequences of the Shahbag Movement.

The longitudinal scope, spanning 2013 to 2024, allows for a genealogical tracing of the movements' evolution, from their emergence to their decline or transformation, set against Bangladesh's shift from nominal democracy to overt authoritarianism. This design supports the study's objectives to examine how movements reshaped civil society, intensified polarisation, and interacted with state power.

Data Collection Methods

To capture the multifaceted nature of the movements, the study employs three primary data

collection methods: in-depth interviews, ethnographic fieldwork, and secondary data analysis.

These methods are triangulated to ensure robustness, balancing subjective participant

perspectives with objective contextual data. Interviews were conducted with 45 participants

involved in the five movements, providing rich, firsthand insights into their motivations,

strategies, and perceptions of success or failure. Participants were selected through snowball

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sampling, beginning with individuals identified via media sources (e.g., TV interviews, speeches, or major newspaper appearances in outlets like The Daily Star or Prothom Alo) and expanding through their networks. This approach was appropriate given the sensitive political context and the need to access activists who might be cautious about public disclosure due to state repression, counter-party violence, political backlash, etc. The sample included students, organisers, supporters, and stakeholders from diverse backgrounds—urban youth, private university students, political leaders and civil society actors—ensuring representation across the movements. For instance, interviewees from the Shahbag Movement included bloggers and movement organisers, VAT protest participants were primarily private university students, Road Safety Movement interviewees included both the students and transport workers, etc.

Semi-structured Interviews- I took 19 interviews in Dhaka from October 17 to December 12,

2019; intended for the Quota Reform Movement and Road Safety Movement. It should be

clarified that this subset of interview data utilised in this dissertation was collected before the

formal commencement of my PhD program and the final articulation of my dissertation topic. As

a scholar and long-term activist engaged in the study of social movements, I have consistently

pursued systematic observation and documentation of such phenomena, driven by both personal

interest and academic curiosity. During the period when these interviews were conducted, I was

in the preliminary stages of conceptualising my dissertation research, which focuses on the

dynamics and mechanisms of social movements. Recognising the potential relevance of two

specific movements to my emerging research questions, I almost intuitively started informal

conversations and conducted interviews with key participants, employing a semi-structured

approach to ensure systematic data collection. Later in the subsequent years (2021-2025), I

periodically reconnected with many of these interviewees online and during my trips to

Bangladesh to reconfirm their remarks. These interviews were subsequently integrated into my

dissertation because they directly align with the case studies central to my research objectives.

The data proved particularly valuable as they captured authentic perspectives from movement

participants, offering insights that remained pertinent to the refined scope of my dissertation. To ensure methodological rigour, I critically evaluated the interview data for relevance and consistency with my research framework before their inclusion. A peer-reviewed publication (Paper A), (I have liberally quoted some references from some of the informal conversations, with permission, that I had during my research in this published paper); which forms part of this dissertation, further substantiates the scholarly validity of this material by demonstrating its analytical utility within an established academic discourse. This approach adheres to principles of reflexive research practice, wherein retrospective engagement with fieldwork can inform and refine emergent research questions. Conducting these interviews posed significant challenges due to Bangladesh's highly constrained political environment. A key obstacle was the absence of an official institutional affiliation (e.g., as a researcher affiliated with an academic body or a journalist representing a media outlet), which often serves as a legitimising factor for accessing respondents. Consequently, I relied on my pre-existing personal networks as an activist within Dhaka's urban activism circles. The nature of the movements under study—particularly the Road Safety Movement, which lacked formal organisational structures and primarily involved young high school activists—further complicated outreach efforts. In a political climate where state and non-state violence is pervasive, establishing trust with participants was paramount. To navigate these challenges, I initially contacted leaders of the Bangladesh Students' Union (BSU), the country's largest left-leaning student organisation, with which I had been affiliated during my early university years. This connection facilitated access to key activists, including Khan Asaduzzaman Masum, Rashed Khan and Nurul Haque Nur—respectively central figures in the Shahbag movement and Quota Reform Movement. Notably, these three individuals consented to having their interviews included in this thesis under their real names, an exception among respondents.

This strategy of leveraging personal networks proved indispensable throughout the research, enabling me to secure interviews with activists who might otherwise have been inaccessible due to security concerns or political sensitivities.

I took 5 interviews regarding the Shahbag Movement and Shapla Squire Protests from March 6th to June 11th 2022.

Another round of interviews was conducted between 7th December 2024 and 2nd May 2025 during fieldwork in Dhaka. Overall, 17 interviews were conducted during this time. Data collection during this period presented significant challenges due to the political instability and heightened security concerns following the August 2024 political shift. The volatile political climate, characterised by widespread mistrust and heightened security concerns, posed substantial challenges in securing in-person interviews. Despite being physically present in Bangladesh and leveraging personal and professional networks, I encountered considerable reluctance from potential participants to engage face-to-face, reflecting the pervasive atmosphere of fear and uncertainty. Even leveraging personal and professional networks proved insufficient to overcome these barriers, as many individuals were hesitant to engage openly. Consequently, most participants agreed to online interviews only under strict conditions: they requested that their identities be anonymised, their images obscured in any video recordings, and their real names withheld in the thesis to mitigate perceived risks. These constraints not only reflect the precarious security environment but also highlight the ethical and methodological complexities of conducting research in politically volatile contexts. In one case, on a late January evening, I found myself navigating the extremely dirty, narrow, winding alleys of a densely populated shantytown to meet a participant-a former BCL leader, who had reluctantly agreed to an inperson interview. The political climate since August 2024 had made such meetings rare, and he had only consented after weeks of cautious negotiation through trusted intermediaries. The interview was to take place in his one-room home, a tin-roofed shanty with bamboo walls so thin

that whispers carried. As I entered, the dim glow of a single bulb cast long shadows, and he

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quickly closed the window, ensuring no prying eyes could see inside. He spoke in hushed tones, frequently pausing to listen for footsteps outside. The air was thick with tension—not just from the fear of surveillance but also from the weight of his words as he recounted experiences he had never shared openly. Halfway through, distant shouts and the sudden blare of a megaphone sent a jolt of panic through us. He stiffened, his eyes darting toward the door. We sat in silence for what felt like an eternity until the noise faded. He insisted we finish quickly, his voice now barely above a murmur. This encounter underscored the extreme risks participants took to share their stories—and the ethical responsibility I carried to protect their anonymity in a world where trust had become a luxury.

On the whole, 45 interviews were conducted in-person or via secure online platforms (e.g., encrypted Zoom calls) lasting 45-90 minutes. Prior to each interview, the researcher clearly outlined the purpose and emphasised the significance of confidentiality. Participants provided consent before proceeding. An interview guide was used, with open-ended questions tailored to each movement but standardised across cases to ensure comparability. Questions explored participants' reasons for joining (e.g., "What motivated you to participate in the Shahbag Movement?"), strategies employed (e.g., "How did you coordinate road blockades during the VAT protests?"), and reflections on outcomes (e.g., "Why do you think the Road Safety Protests faded despite public support?"). Interviews were conducted in Bengali. The in-depth interviews were digitally recorded for accuracy and analysis. Transcriptions were translated into English for analysis.

Ethnographic Fieldwork

Ethnographic fieldwork, informed by my participation in the Shahbag Movement, provides

immersive, firsthand data on the movement's dynamics. My involvement with the movement

was participatory. I have been personally associated as an activist in the Shahbag movement. The

nature of the movement was hugely online participation to form the grand narrative of the issue

of the movement (historical justice for war crime) particularly through blogging, Facebook posts,

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Twitter etc. Through my blog posts in Sachalayatan (one of the largest community blogging platforms in Bangladesh during the time) and constant online presence through Facebook and Twitter, I contributed to the formation of the narrative of the movement when in Bangladesh. Then, while I was in Moscow for my studies during the movement, I was in constant contact with the movement leaders from the very first day of the protest, which emerged on the evening of February 5, 2013. On February 11, I managed to arrange a meeting with the Bengali students and community leaders in Moscow. As a result of the meeting, we arranged a gathering of students and community members at the RUDN University campus in solidarity with the movement the next day. On February 15, we distributed handbills among the local Russians in the area of the Bangladesh Embassy. In the meantime, I tried to arrange a rally but failed to get permission from the Russian authorities. After several attempts, I finally got permission to rally at a public square in Moscow. On February 21, 2013, we rallied with the participation of the members of the Bengali community, which was the first and only such event in the history of the Bengali community in Russia. During the entire period of the movement, I conducted several informal interviews with the participants. I travelled back to Bangladesh at the beginning of April 2013, when the initial spark of the movements started to fade out and was in its declining stage. But there were still different vivid actions taking place. I attended rallies, sit-ins, and candlelight vigils in Dhaka's Shahbag Square, observing the electric atmosphere of thousands chanting "Fashi chai" (We want execution), fearing deadly repercussions from the Islamists, and debating over movement tactics. These observations were documented through field notes, capturing interactions, slogans, and spatial dynamics (e.g., human chains stretching across intersections).

Subsequently, through the following years, I have travelled and stayed in Bangladesh

intermittently for longer periods of time, mainly engaging in activism and fieldwork. In August

2023, I travelled to Bangladesh. During this time, I talked with several activists informally. I also

took 3 in-person interviews at that time. For subsequent movements, particularly during the

Quota Movement and the Road Safety Movement, I conducted site visits to protest locations in June- July 2018 (university campuses during Quota Reform, several protest points in the Dhaka streets and locality, including Dhanmondi, Shahbag, etc.), observing tactics like road blockades and traffic direction by students. Ethnographic data include descriptions of protest aesthetics (e.g., banners reading "Road closed, state repair going on, sorry for the momentary inconveniences"), participant emotions (e.g., anger after police violence), and state responses (e.g., tear gas deployment).

This method enriches the study by grounding the analysis in lived experiences, offering a visceral sense of the movements' intensity and constraints. Fieldwork was conducted intermittently from 2013 to 2018, with reflective notes compiled in 2024 to contextualise observations within the broader political trajectory.

Secondary Data Analysis

Secondary data were collected to triangulate primary findings and situate the movements within

Bangladesh's socio-political context. Sources include the Newspaper archives, academic

literature, online repositories, policy documents, etc. Articles from the newspapers The Daily

Star, Prothom Alo, Dhaka Tribune, and New Age provided contemporaneous accounts of protest

events, government responses, and public reactions. For example, reports on the VAT protests'

road blockades (The Daily Star, 2015) and police violence (Dhaka Tribune, 2015) were

analysed. Scholarly works on Bangladesh's political history, social movements, and

authoritarianism (e.g., Riaz, 2019; Jackman, 2021) offered theoretical and historical context.

Social media posts (e.g., #NoVatOnEducation, #Shahbag) from platforms like Facebook and

Twitter were studied, capturing digital mobilisation and public sentiment. Government reports

(e.g., Ministry of Finance, 2015) and legislation (e.g., Digital Security Act) were reviewed to

understand state policies affecting the movements. During my trip to Bangladesh in 2023, I also

personally visited several newspaper archives, including Prothom Alo and Daily Star, NGO

archives, including Ain O Salish Kendra (ASK), CPB party archives, etc. Secondary data were

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collected systematically, focusing on the period 2013-2024, and organised to ensure comprehensive coverage. This method complements primary data by providing external perspectives and verifying participant accounts.

Case Sampling Strategy

The study uses purposive sampling for case selection, choosing five movements based on their significance in Bangladesh's post-2013 political landscape. Criteria included: (1) occurrence after 2013, marking the onset of heightened polarization; (2) mobilization of diverse societal groups (e.g., students, youth); (3) engagement with key grievances (e.g., justice, economic access, safety); and (4) varied outcomes (e.g., policy reversal, repression, or dissolution). The Shahbag Movement was selected for its role in sparking polarisation, the Shapla Square Protests for its counter-mobilisation, the VAT protests for their cultural resistance, and the Quota Reform and Road Safety movements for their comparative insights into organisational dynamics.

For interviews, snowball sampling ensured access to a diverse yet relevant participant pool, starting with media-visible figures and expanding to less prominent activists. This method yielded a total sample of 45 respondents, balanced across gender, age, and role (e.g., organisers, participants). Ethnographic sites were chosen based on protest epicentres (e.g., Shahbag Square, Dhaka universities), ensuring data reflected the movements' core activities.

Data Analysis

Data analysis followed a thematic and comparative approach, guided by the theoretical

frameworks of PPT and NSM theory. Interview transcripts, field notes, and secondary data were

thematically coded. Prior to commencing the coding process, I conducted a comprehensive

review of the interview data to ensure familiarity with its content. Following this, I

systematically identified and assigned codes to segments of the data that exhibited shared

meanings. Through an analytical examination of these codes, I discerned recurring themes and

their corresponding sub-themes. These themes underwent iterative review and refinement to

enhance their precision. To facilitate a structured analysis, I grouped related codes into coherent

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thematic categories. The thematic coding process was systematically designed to align with the thesis's objectives of analysing the role of social movements in shaping polarisation, civil society, and authoritarianism in Bangladesh from 2013 to 2024. This process addressed the research questions and defended conjectural statements through a structured, three-stage approach: open coding, axial coding, and thematic categorisation, grounded in Political Process Theory (PPT), New Social Movement (NSM) theory, and the Social Movement Impact lens.

Open coding began with a thorough review of primary data (45 interview transcripts, ethnographic field notes) and secondary sources (newspaper archives, academic literature) to identify recurring patterns. Data segments were assigned descriptive codes capturing participant experiences, protest strategies, state responses, and societal impacts. For instance, interview references to "secular vs. Islamist" divide in Shahbag protests were coded as "Ideological Framing," while VAT protest slogans like "Education is a right" were coded as "Anti-Market Framing." Ethnographic observations of Shahbag's "Fashi chai" chants generated "Symbolic Resistance," and secondary reports of police crackdowns (e.g., Dhaka Tribune, 2015) produced "Police Violence." This phase yielded 20 open codes, reflecting the multifaceted dynamics of the five movements.

Axial coding involved grouping open codes into related clusters to establish conceptual

relationships, aligning with the thesis's theoretical frameworks and research questions. Codes

were organized around core phenomena—polarization, authoritarian reinforcement, cultural

contestation, organizational dynamics, and movement outcomes—through iterative analysis. For

example, "Ideological Framing," "Counter-Mobilization," and "Societal Fragmentation" were

clustered under "Secular-Islamist Divide" to address Shahbag's polarizing impact (RQ1,

Assumption 1). Similarly, "Formal Organization" and "Informal Networks" were grouped under

"Mobilizing Structures" to contrast Quota Reform and Road Safety's organizational capacities

(RQ4, Assumption 4). The Social Movement Impact lens informed "Unintended Consequences,"

linking "Authoritarian Entrenchment" and "Societal Polarization" to Shahbag's outcomes. This

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process consolidated open codes into 10 axial codes, focusing the analysis on the thesis's core arguments.

Thematic categorization organized axial codes into five thematic categories to directly address the research questions and assumptions: Polarization Dynamics, Authoritarian Reinforcement, Cultural Contestation, Organizational Dynamics, and Movement Outcomes. These categories reflect the thesis's objectives of examining polarization (RQ1, Assumption 1), authoritarian interactions (RQ1, Assumption 1), No VAT's cultural critique and identity (RQ3, Assumption 3), and structural differences between Quota Reform and Road Safety (RQ4, Assumption 4). For instance, "Polarization Dynamics" integrates "Secular-Islamist Divide" and "State Exploitation of Polarization" to explain Shahbag's societal and political divides, while "Cultural Contestation" captures No VAT's NSM characteristics through "Collective Identity Formation" and "Critique of Neoliberalism." "Movement Outcomes" highlights policy successes and unintended consequences, such as authoritarian entrenchment, using the Social Movement Impact lens. A summary of the coding framework, including key codes, definitions, and examples, is provided in Appendix D to illustrate the thematic analysis process.

Ethical Considerations

Given the politically sensitive context of Bangladesh, ethical considerations were paramount. Informed consent was obtained from all interviewees, with clear explanations of the study's purpose, their right to withdraw, and data anonymity. Pseudonyms were used to protect identities, and data were stored on encrypted drives. Ethnographic observations avoided identifying specific individuals in field notes. The researcher's involvement in the Shahbag Movement necessitated reflexivity to mitigate bias, achieved through regular journaling and peer debriefing. Secondary data were sourced from reputable outlets.

Limitations

The study faces limitations inherent to qualitative research in authoritarian contexts. Snowball

sampling may miss marginalised voices, though efforts were made to include diverse

22

participants. State repression limited access to some activists, particularly from the Shapla Square Protests, due to safety concerns. The researcher's Shahbag involvement risks insider bias, however, addressed through triangulation and reflexivity. Secondary data, especially from polarised media, required critical evaluation to avoid skewed narratives.

Scientific Contribution and Significance of the Research

• Previous research on social movements in Bangladesh has been limited, often focusing on isolated political frameworks without integrating diverse case studies under a unified analytical lens. This study fills this gap by developing a comprehensive framework that combines Political Process Theory (PPT) and New Social Movement Theory (NSM) to analyse the emergence, dynamics, and outcomes of five distinct movements. By comparing movements with varied grievances—justice (Shahbag), economic access (VAT), and systemic reform (Quota Reform, Road Safety)—the research provides a nuanced understanding of how structural, cultural, and consequential factors interact in an authoritarian context, offering a model for studying movements in other Global South settings.

• This study is the first to holistically address the paradox of limited social movements during the Awami League's authoritarian rule (2009-2024) by tracing their trajectories and impacts over a longitudinal period (2013-2024). Through a comparative analysis of grassroots activism, the research links micro-level dynamics (e.g., youth mobilisation, collective identity) to macro-level political trends, such as democratic backsliding and competitive authoritarianism. By demonstrating how movements like Shahbag intensified polarisation and Quota Reform achieved policy concessions despite repression, the study illuminates the complex interplay between activism and authoritarian consolidation, contributing to global debates on contentious politics under non-democratic regimes.

• The research contributes to theoretical innovation by integrating PPT and NSM into a

cohesive analytical framework, bridging structural, cultural, and outcome-oriented

perspectives. While PPT elucidates movement emergence through political opportunities and mobilising structures (e.g., Quota Reform's student networks), NSM highlights cultural contestation and identity formation (e.g., VAT's resistance to neoliberalism), and the social movement impact lens examines impacts like policy change and political ruptures (e.g., Shahbag's polarization). This triadic approach not only enriches the analysis of Bangladesh's movements but also offers a replicable model for studying social movements in contexts where structural constraints and cultural dynamics coexist with significant societal impacts, advancing interdisciplinary social movement scholarship.

• By situating the five movements within Bangladesh's trajectory from nominal democracy to competitive authoritarianism (2013-2024), the study offers a novel empirical contribution to understanding how social movements contribute to democratic collapse. It demonstrates how movements, despite limited sustained action, reshaped civil society through cultural shifts, intensified polarization (e.g., Shahbag's secular-religious divide), and challenged state power (e.g., Quota Reform's concessions), yet inadvertently facilitated authoritarian consolidation through state repression and societal fragmentation. This finding provides critical insights for scholars examining the unintended consequences of activism in competitive authoritarian regimes, with implications for South Asia and beyond.

Articles

The dissertation results were presented in the following articles:

• (Article A) Ghosh, S.C., 2024. Conceptualizing student movements in Bangladesh post-2013: a qualitative and comparative case study of the Quota Reform Movement and the

Road Safety Movement. Social Identities, 29(6), pp.534-554. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504630.2024.2320093

• (Article B) Ghosh, S.Ch. (2025) Beyond material grievances: analyzing the 2015 bangladesh "No VAT on Education" movement through a New Social Movement perspective. Vestnik Tomskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Filosofiya. Sotsiologiya. Politologiya - Tomsk State University Journal of Philosophy, Sociology and Political Science. 84. pp. 205-218. doi: 10.17223/1998863X/84/17

• (Article C) Ghosh, S.Ch., 2025. The Aftermath of Shahbag Movement: Metamorphoses of State, Civil Society, and Social Movements, in Bangladesh. Journal of Social Policy Studies - ZhurnalIssledovanii Sotsial'noi Politiki. T.23 №2 2025. (accepted)

Заключение диссертации по теме «Другие cпециальности», Гхош Сайкот Чандра -

ЗАКЛЮЧЕНИЕ:

Теоретически, исследование продвигает науку о социальных движениях, интегрируя PPT, NSM и влияние социальных движений в единую структуру, объединяя структурные, культурные и ориентированные на результат перспективы. Этот триадный подход, подробно описанный в главе 2, обогащает анализ движений в авторитарных контекстах, охватывая их возникновение (PPT), культурное противостояние (NSM) и непреднамеренные последствия (влияние общественного движения). Например, поляризация Шахбага и формирование идентичности ВАТА подчеркивают взаимосвязь структурных ограничений и культурных устремлений, предлагая воспроизводимую модель для изучения движений на Глобальном Юге. Интеграция концепции воздействия общественных движений, частично примененной к результатам работы "Шахбага", позволяет по-новому взглянуть на непреднамеренные последствия, такие как усиление авторитаризма, ставя под сомнение предположения о том, что движения по своей сути способствуют демократизации (Tarrow, 1998). Это теоретическое новшество имеет значение для глобальных дебатов о спорной политике, особенно на глобальном юге, где активизм преодолевает аналогичные авторитарные ограничения.

Методологически качественный сравнительный подход к исследованию, основанный на

анализе 45 интервью, этнографических полевых исследованиях и вторичных данных,

устанавливает стандарт для тщательных исследований в репрессивной среде. Система

тематического кодирования (Приложение D) повышает прозрачность и

воспроизводимость, как описано в главе 1.6.4. Этические проблемы, с которыми

сталкивается исследование — выборка по принципу "снежного кома", анонимность и

рефлексивность — являются основой для исследователей в политически чувствительных

ситуациях, когда государственный надзор ограничивает доступ к данным. Благодаря

269

перекрестным ссылкам на результаты, полученные в разных главах (например, о поляризации Шахбага в главе 4, об организации реформы квот в главе 6), исследование обеспечивает аналитическую согласованность, способствуя методологическому прогрессу в сравнительных исследованиях общественных движений.

Эмпирически это исследование дает всесторонний отчет о социальных движениях Бангладеш за период с 2013 по 2024 год, заполняя пробел в научных исследованиях, которые ранее были сосредоточены на изолированных политических структурах. Лонгитюдный анализ показывает, как движения изменили гражданское общество посредством культурных сдвигов (НДС), усилили поляризацию (Шахбаг) и бросили вызов государственной власти (реформа квот), но при этом способствовали авторитарной консолидации посредством репрессий и фрагментации. Вывод о том, что поляризация Шахбага стала катализатором краха демократии к 2024 году, поскольку Народная лига использовала разногласия между светскими и исламистскими силами, дает критическое представление о непреднамеренных последствиях активизма. Этот эмпирический вклад служит основой для исследований в Южной Азии, освещая Бангладеш как пример конкурентного авторитаризма, где движения одновременно противостоят государственной власти и укрепляют ее.

На практике результаты исследования имеют значение для активистов и политиков. Для

активистов успех мобилизующих структур реформы квот и культурных рамок НДС

свидетельствует о том, что сочетание организационной мощи с инклюзивными идеями

может повысить устойчивость движения в условиях репрессий. Тем не менее,

сотрудничество Шахбага предостерегает от идеологических рамок, которые могут

привести к поляризации. Для политиков исследование подчеркивает необходимость

демократических реформ, которые откроют политические возможности и уменьшат

репрессии, сдерживающие активность. Неудача спонтанной организации "Безопасность

дорожного движения" подчеркивает важность поддержки инфраструктуры гражданского

270

общества для поддержания движения. В глобальном масштабе эти выводы служат основой для разработки стратегий поощрения устойчивого активизма в авторитарных условиях, призывая международные организации уделять приоритетное внимание защите активистов, сталкивающихся с насилием со стороны государства.

Результаты исследования находят отклик за пределами Бангладеш, предлагая уроки для постколониальных и авторитарных стран, где широко распространен откат от демократии. Парадокс ограниченных, но действенных движений отражает глобальную модель, наблюдаемую в Венгрии, Индии и Турции, где режимы манипулируют поляризацией, чтобы укрепить свою власть (Левицкий и Уэй, 2010). Пример Бангладеш показывает двойственную роль общественных движений: как катализаторов перемен, которые разоблачают перегибы государства (например, уступки в рамках реформы квот), и как проводников авторитаризма через фрагментацию (например, поляризацию Шахбага). Эта двойственность бросает вызов романтизированным взглядам на активизм, побуждая ученых и практиков задуматься о непредвиденных последствиях. Акцент, сделанный в исследовании на молодежных движениях, в частности на реформе НДС и квот, подчеркивает потенциал образованной молодежи как движущей силы перемен даже в стесненных условиях, что согласуется с тезисом Инглхарта о постматериализме (1977).

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